For the latest installment of the Arkansas Times lecture series, perennial political pundit Skip Rutherford joined us at Copper Grill in downtown Little Rock on Wednesday to dish out a few hot takes on the recent 2025 elections, the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, and the future of Democrats in Arkansas and beyond. (You can hear his full remarks here, along with audio from previous lectures.)
Rutherford, an advisor on Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign and the former dean of the Clinton School of Public Service, has long been a fixture in Arkansas politics. Even into his retirement, Rutherford certainly knows how to draw a crowd. Many former and current elected officials around Pulaski County attended, including Little Rock Mayor Frank Scott Jr., City Director Virgil Miller, Pulaski County Judge Barry Hyde and former state Sen. Will Bond. A few public office hopefuls were also in the crowd, such as Hallie Shoffner, the Newport farmer challenging U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton; circuit court judge candidate Robert Tellez; and former circuit court judge Wendell Griffen, who is running against Hyde for county judge.
When out-of-state journalists want to know what’s going on in Bill Clinton’s now ruby-red home state, Rutherford is the guy they’ve tended to go to. And he’s developed immense credibility with beleaguered Arkansas Democrats, who since their electoral collapse in the 2010s really haven’t had much mojo beyond Pulaski County, a few pieces of Northwest Arkansas and a handful of Delta counties.
Could that change, considering Democrats swept races in blue and red states alike earlier this month?
Rutherford said the 2025 blowout shows that liberals are engaged right now and the country is sending Trump a message. And the size of the audience that showed up on Wednesday reflected that enthusiasm. Even if they are undeniably a minority in Arkansas, liberals were fired up to engage with Rutherford on the way forward after the grueling loss to Donald Trump in 2024 and the authoritarian, cruel and damaging approach he’s taken in his second term.
Pointing back to the winning ’92 Clinton campaign, Rutherford said there were remarkable parallels between the issues Democrats won on then and the issues Democrats won on this year. He recalled the old motto usually credited to pundit James Carville: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Rutherford said Democrats have to be laser focused on communicating a simple economic agenda that prioritizes the “affordability” concerns most Americans share. And what every successful Democrat ran on in 2025, from democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York to centrists like Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger (the incoming governors in New Jersey and Virginia, respectively), was the cost of living crisis many working families are juggling. If you’ve been paying much attention to national news, that seems to be the general consensus of national pundits as well.
Rutherford also tied the recent government shutdown fight over health care costs to the other two planks of the ’92 Clinton campaign: “Don’t forget healthcare” and “Change vs. More of the Same.”
Regardless of how centrist or liberal any particular candidate is, Rutherford emphasized that those three planks should guide the messaging of Democrats going forward. But he cautioned his listeners against overconfidence going into 2026, Trump received a warning about the direction the country is going, Rutherford said, and he has time to recalibrate and address the cost of living issues before a 2026 shellacking at the polls.
Looking ahead, Rutherford pointed engaged Arkansans to a few races they may want to pay attention to in 2026. They include the sheriff’s race in Lonoke County that may include a guy who allegedly shot and killed his daughter’s abuser. Gov. Sarah Sanders-backed farmer-influencer Trey “BoDirt” Bohannon is mounting a primary challenge to longtime Republican state Sen. Ron Caldwell (R-Wynne), and Bobby Ballinger Jr.’s is taking on Sanders antagonizer Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forest). Little Rock attorney John Adams is facing off against a Sanders-appointed state Supreme Court justice, Nicholas Bronni, in a statewide race.
There’s also the three-way Democratic primary between three women for term-limited Sen. Fred Love’s seat in Little Rock: state Rep.Tara Shepherd; Love’s wife, ShaRhonda Love; and Charity Smith-Allen, wife of outgoing state Rep. Fred Allen.
In Pulaski County, Rutherford said to watch the race between Griffen and Hyde for county judge, and the prosecutor’s race between incumbent Will Jones and challenger Bobby Forrest Jr. That race just got a lot more interesting with Jones’ admission of an affair with one of his deputies. Rutherford also said politicos should watch and see if the large number of strong Black candidates in Pulaski County will yield higher voter turnout than usual in the 2026 midterms.
Enthused liberals were pleased by Rutherford’s proclamation that — while it would be challenging — Shoffner could have a real chance to oust Cotton if Democrats win in a landslide in 2026. But looking at the last 10 years of statewide races will make anyone skeptical, even if Shoffner has many exciting aspects to her campaign.
The crowd certainly seemed happy with Rutherford’s talk, and it sounded like solid advice and prognostication. But the larger question of how the Democrats can compete more broadly in red America was left unanswered. Democrats’ toxic brand in half the states in the U.S. is arguably the party’s greatest barrier to success, with our own Natural State being one of the prime examples. But you can’t fault Rutherford for not dwelling there, as it doesn’t seem like anyone in today’s Democratic Party has a credible answer on that topic.