**Tools:** Python (including libraries such as seaborn, matplotlib, numpy, pandas, and more)
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw will take place on December 5. There are several constraints which govern how the 48 teams (6 of which are still to be determined via playoffs in March) can be drawn into 12 groups of 4 teams each:
– Each group must have one team from each Pot (teams are allocated into Pots based mostly on their FIFA World Ranking).
– No two teams from the same confederation can be in the same group, other than teams from UEFA (Europe).
– 8 groups must contain a singular UEFA team, while 4 groups must contain exactly two UEFA teams.
– The top 2 ranked teams, Spain and Argentina, must be allocated to groups whose winners will go to opposite halves of the knockout stage bracket.
– The top 4 ranked teams, including France and England, must be allocated to groups whose winners will go to different quarters of the knockout stage bracket.
– Mexico must be drawn into Group A, Canada must be drawn into Group B, and USA must be drawn into Group D.
Using those constraints, I simulated 1,000,000 random draws and plotted the percentage in which each team wound up in the same group as each other team.
I also pooled and averaged the results for mathematically-identical team combinations in order to guarantee consistent results for teams who are interchangeable (e.g., Morocco and Senegal, both CAF teams in Pot 2, have the same probability of being grouped with Panama).
CherrysPride on
This is actually really good and cool data! Thank you for using your time to make this chart!
![[OC] 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw: Probability of Teams Being in the Same Group](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/ny9l0h330z3g1-1024x971.png "[OC] 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw: Probability of Teams Being in the Same Group")
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**Source:** [FIFA World Cup Draw Procedures](https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/procedures-final-draw-world-cup-2026-revealed)
**Tools:** Python (including libraries such as seaborn, matplotlib, numpy, pandas, and more)
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw will take place on December 5. There are several constraints which govern how the 48 teams (6 of which are still to be determined via playoffs in March) can be drawn into 12 groups of 4 teams each:
– Each group must have one team from each Pot (teams are allocated into Pots based mostly on their FIFA World Ranking).
– No two teams from the same confederation can be in the same group, other than teams from UEFA (Europe).
– 8 groups must contain a singular UEFA team, while 4 groups must contain exactly two UEFA teams.
– The top 2 ranked teams, Spain and Argentina, must be allocated to groups whose winners will go to opposite halves of the knockout stage bracket.
– The top 4 ranked teams, including France and England, must be allocated to groups whose winners will go to different quarters of the knockout stage bracket.
– Mexico must be drawn into Group A, Canada must be drawn into Group B, and USA must be drawn into Group D.
Using those constraints, I simulated 1,000,000 random draws and plotted the percentage in which each team wound up in the same group as each other team.
I also pooled and averaged the results for mathematically-identical team combinations in order to guarantee consistent results for teams who are interchangeable (e.g., Morocco and Senegal, both CAF teams in Pot 2, have the same probability of being grouped with Panama).
This is actually really good and cool data! Thank you for using your time to make this chart!