The scale of the cod reduction has drawn sharp reactions from the fishing community, particularly in Shetland.
Daniel Lawson, executive officer of the Shetland Fishermen’s Association, said governments had sought to limit the damage but that the consequences would still be severe. “UK and Scottish Government negotiators have worked hard to support sustainable fishing opportunities, and so spare the fleet – and our wider community – from the worst-case economic shocks. However, there is no doubt that 2026 will be a hard year for fishing crews across all fleet sectors,” he said.
Lawson said SFA analysis suggested the cod cut alone would remove over £16 million from Shetland’s local economy next year. “Numbers in government spreadsheets have real life consequences. For a population of only 23,000 folk, that economic impact will be felt strongest in communities such as Shetland – with family-owned vessels and shareholder crews,” he said.
He also questioned the scientific basis for the decision. “The irresponsible assumptions and unsupported guesswork which form the basis of this cod cut reveal the desperate need for investment in evidence-led fisheries science. Fishermen whose livelihoods depend on it deserve serious analysis of data, not arbitrary computer modelling which consistently fails to reflect what fishing crews see every day at sea,” Lawson added.
SFA chairman James Anderson said further pressure was expected once other negotiations conclude. “Fishermen will await the outcome of other negotiations before taking full stock for the year ahead. With quota cuts expected across our most valuable whitefish and pelagic stocks, our industry will once again be forced to step up and show its resilience. Governments must now consider what support they can offer: because no business can survive on resilience alone,” he said.
Anderson warned of longer-term risks to local ownership. “While Shetland fish stocks will bounce back, as they always have, we must all take care to ensure that a locally owned fishing fleet is still here to help Shetlanders benefit from that rich resource,” he said.
Scottish Fleet Relieved To Avoid Zero Catch Scenario
The Scottish Fishermen’s Federation described the outcome as difficult but preferable to earlier worst-case scenarios.
Elspeth Macdonald, SFF chief executive, said the Scottish whitefish fleet had been bracing for a potential shutdown. “With ICES having recommended a zero total allowable catch (TAC) for Northern shelf cod, the Scottish whitefish fleet had been contemplating having to tie up for much of the year,” she said.
Macdonald acknowledged ongoing concerns over the science. “We said when ICES published their advice in the autumn that there are problems with how their scientific advice is formulated, and there is work underway seeking to address that,” she said, adding that she was relieved negotiators found a way to set a TAC alongside protective measures.
She also welcomed progress on North Sea herring. “The herring TAC is reduced for 2026, but the negotiators were able to agree a TAC higher than the ICES advice while maintaining the stock at a sustainable level,” she said.
Herring Agreement Marks Shift In Management Approach
For North Sea herring, the parties agreed a total quota of 328,566 tonnes for 2026, down 20 per cent on 2025. Norway’s share amounts to 91,013 tonnes.
After prolonged discussions informed by ICES evaluations, the parties moved to a single total quota approach, distributed between them under a new management strategy intended to improve sustainability.
Norway’s fishing industry representatives welcomed that shift, while flagging continued challenges.
Norwegian Fishing Industry Flags Cod Constraint Risks
Jan Birger Jørgensen, Assistant Secretary General of the Norwegian Fishermen’s Association, said the agreement was positive overall but warned cod could prove a serious bottleneck. “It is positive that we have reached an agreement with the UK and the EU on the North Sea, but it will be particularly challenging to achieve a sensible regulatory system with the low cod quota,” he said.
He noted the historically low cod quota would make day-to-day fishing operations more difficult, even where other stocks remain healthy.
Other Stocks Face Further Reductions
Beyond cod and herring, the agreement sets lower quotas for additional species. For saithe, the total quota for 2026 is 59,662 tonnes, a reduction of 25 per cent, with Norway allocated 28,108 tonnes. For haddock, the total quota stands at 108,301 tonnes, down 3.7 per cent year-on-year, with a Norwegian share of 21,237 tonnes.
Svend-Erik Andersen of the Danish Fisheries Association highlighted the mixed picture for fishermen. “Fortunately, we have many fish stocks in the North Sea that are doing well. We have historically haddock in abundance, and we will not be able to catch them if a quota for cod is not set. This is why this agreement is of crucial importance for Danish Fisheries Association,” he said.
Andersen said cod had recovered before under balanced management. “Cod has been under considerably greater pressure in the past. Back then, with a responsible fisheries policy, where there was room for both cod protection and cod fishing, we were able to turn the tide. I believe we can do that again, and I believe that this agreement is a really sensible step on the way,” he said.
Bilateral Talks Still Outstanding
While the tripartite framework is now agreed, bilateral fisheries agreements between Norway and the UK, and Norway and the EU, will not be finalised until after quota talks between Norway and Russia conclude. Those discussions are scheduled to take place from 8–12 December.