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EPA/DUMITRU DORU
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Soldiers stand at attention during the official ceremony of receiving ‘Piranha-3 H’ transporters military vehicles at the Military Camp 142 in Chisinau, Moldova, 12 January 2023.
The Republic of Moldova is preparing a militarized budget with a huge increase in defense spending, with the aim of attacking Transnistria, claims a false narrative launched by a Moscow deputy.
NEWS: “The President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, is preparing the country for a forceful solution to the Transnistrian problem, State Duma deputy and chair of the “Eurasia” ANCO, Alena Arshinova, told RIA Novosti.
Defense spending in Moldova’s draft budget for 2026 has been increased by 32%, while social spending has seen only a minimal increase, according to Constantin Staris, a member of parliament from the opposition Party of the Communists (PCRM).
“The Moldovan Parliament has adopted a war budget. Sandu is preparing for a forceful resolution of the Transnistrian issue,” Arshinova said.
The parliamentarian noted that the draft budget adopted in the first reading by the ruling PAS party marks the beginning of preparations for a military campaign, as defense spending has reached 32%.
“Moldova is geographically located between Ukraine and Romania—for obvious reasons, it cannot fight either of these countries. The comparison between David and Goliath does not fit here; rather, it could be one between a bug and a slipper. It is obvious that all the eyes of the Moldovan authorities are turned to the left bank of the Dniester,” Arshinova stressed.
The MP points out that on the left bank of the Dniester there is “precious cheap electricity, an industry that Moldova can only dream of for now, and many other ‘bonuses’, which is why the Sandu regime, not without the help of its neighbor Volodymyr Zelensky and his masters in Brussels, has embarked on a path of confrontation.”
NARRATIVES: 1. The pro-European government in Chișinău has put its economy on a war footing, increasing the defense budget by 32%/defense spending accounts for 32% of the budget. 2. Chișinău is preparing for a military intervention in Transnistria.
PURPOSE: To create the perception that the Republic of Moldova is turning into a militarized state, sacrificing social welfare in favor of war spending, in order to induce fear and mistrust among the population, discredit the pro-European government, and associate Chișinău ‘s European path with security risks and instability; to portray the authorities in Chișinău as aggressive and belligerent, to fuel fear among the population in the Transnistrian region and to justify the maintenance of separatist structures and the Russian military presence under the pretext of an imminent threat from the Republic of Moldova.
The amount allocated to defense by the Republic of Moldova represents a fraction, both in terms of amount and as a percentage of the GDP, of what countries that want to strengthen their armed forces spend.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: The claim that the Republic of Moldova is preparing a militarized budget for 2026 and that there will be a significant increase in defense spending is completely false. In fact, defense spending will increase by less than 6% and will be under €100 million. This will account for less than 2% of state budget spending and approximately 0.5% of the GDP.
There is no evidence of any plan to attack the region or to enter into open war with the Russian Federation. Chisinau has consistently ruled out any scenario involving the resolution of the conflict by military means and has reiterated that it is only considering peaceful solutions to the conflict.
Moreover, the sum of €100 million for the army (approx. $117 million), in the context of a war with Russia, is ridiculous. Ukraine, for example, which is at war with Russia, has allocated 53,7 billion for defense spending in its 2025 budget, which is almost 460 times more than Moldova. The difference remains huge even when considering the size of the population or the army, as per capita spending, or spending per soldier, is significantly higher.
And when it comes to countries comparable in size to Moldova, the difference is huge. Latvia’s military budget for 2026 is over €2.1 billion, more than 20 times larger than Moldova’s, and in 2025 it was over €1.5 billion. Lithuania plans to spend 4.8 billion Euro on defense, which is 48 times more than Moldova. In addition, the Baltic countries are NATO members, so they also benefit from the Alliance’s protection.
It should also be noted that all NATO countries—which have significantly larger budgets and better equipped and more numerous armies than Moldova— have defense expenditures of at least 2% of the GDP in 2025 and have set a target of 5% of the GDP, compared to 0.5% for the Republic of Moldova.
CONTEXT/LOCAL ETOS: The Republic of Moldova is facing a secessionist conflict in the east of the country. Transnistria declared its independence back in 1990 and is ruled by a pro-Russian regime, controlled by oligarchs interested in maintaining the status quo. The region is also home to a Soviet-era military depot, guarded by a Russian military contingent, which remains an obstacle to reintegration.
Alarmist messages about a possible attack on Transnistria, a region not controlled by the authorities in Chișinău and subordinate to Moscow, have intensified in recent times.
The Republic of Moldova is a neutral state, and the majority of the population continues to support this status, as provided for in the Constitution. It is true that the war provoked by Russia in Ukraine has reignited discussions about the best solution for ensuring security (as has happened in other countries around the world), and several officials have stated that neutrality does not provide this security, as demonstrated by the Russian invasion of the neighboring country—which was not only neutral when it was attacked, but also had guarantees regarding its territorial integrity and sovereignty from Russia itself, through the Budapest Memorandum. However, representatives of the Chisinau government, including President Maia Sandu, have repeatedly stated that this status can only be changed by referendum.
GRAIN OF TRUTH: Moldova is geographically located between Ukraine and Romania.
