Russia ‘willing to legally confirm it has no intention of attacking NATO’ – as US intelligence reports defy Trump and say Putin wants all of Ukraine and then Europe invasion

Russia has claimed it is ready to legally guarantee it has no plans to attack NATO, even as US intelligence paints a far darker picture of Vladimir Putin‘s true ambitions.

On Monday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow is willing to confirm in a binding agreement that it has ‘no intention of attacking’ either the EU or the US-led NATO military alliance.

But behind the scenes, American intelligence agencies are sounding the alarm.

According to six sources familiar with classified US assessments, Putin has not abandoned his ultimate war aims, including capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe once ruled by the Soviet empire – despite ongoing negotiations to end the war.

The findings directly contradict the Russian leader’s repeated denials that he poses a threat to Europe, and clash with the far more optimistic tone struck by US President Donald Trump and his peace envoys, who insist Putin wants to end the conflict.

The most recent intelligence report dates back to late September, one source said, and US conclusions have remained consistent since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

They also closely align with the long-held fears of European leaders and intelligence agencies, who believe Putin still covets not only Ukraine but territories belonging to former Soviet bloc states – including NATO members.

‘The intelligence has always been that Putin wants more’, said Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee. 

‘The Europeans are convinced of it. The Poles are absolutely convinced of it. The Baltics think they’re first.’ 

Russia currently occupies around 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory, including most of Luhansk and Donetsk, the industrial heartland of the Donbas, along with parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and Crimea, the strategic Black Sea peninsula seized in 2014.

Putin claims Crimea and all four provinces as Russian territory.

Trump, meanwhile, is pressuring Kyiv to withdraw its remaining forces from a small part of Donetsk as part of a proposed peace deal, according to two sources familiar with talks – a demand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and most Ukrainians flatly reject.

‘The president’s team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the war’ and Trump has stated that a peace deal ‘is closer than ever before,’ a White House official said, declining to address the intelligence warnings.

Adding to the confusion, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard wrote in a post on X on Saturday that intelligence officers had briefed lawmakers that ‘Russia seeks to avoid a larger war with Europe’ and that the poor performance of Russian troops in Ukraine shows Moscow currently lacks the capacity to overrun ‘all of Ukraine, let alone Europe.’ 

The Kremlin hit back swiftly. On Monday, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow could not judge the reliability of the sources – but insisted that if the report was accurate, US intelligence was simply wrong.

‘This is absolutely not true,’ Peskov said.

Behind closed doors, Trump’s negotiators – son-in-law Jared Kushner and billionaire real estate developer Steve Witkoff – have spent weeks hammering out a 20-point peace plan with Ukrainian, Russian, and European officials.

While US officials insist progress has been made, deep divisions remain over territory.

Kushner and Whitkoff met Ukrainian negotiators in Miami on Friday and were expected to hold talks with Russian representatives over the weekend, according to a White House official.

Meanwhile, US, Ukrainian, and European negotiators reached what diplomats described as a broad consensus on Monday during talks in Berlin over robust US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression.

Four European diplomats and two sources familiar with the matter said the guarantees would come into force once a peace agreement is signed.

But the details are contentious. One source and a diplomat said the guarantee hinges on Zelensky agreeing to cede territory to Russia – something he has repeatedly ruled out. 

Other diplomates insisted alternatives were still being explored.

Under the proposals, a largely European security force would be deployed in neighbouring countries and inside Ukraine, away from front lines, to help repel any future Russian attack.

Ukraine’s military would be capped at 800,000 troops, according to one source, though several diplomats said Russia wants a lower limit – an idea US officials are said to be open to.

The UK would provide intelligence and other support, with the package requiring ratification by the US Senate. Two sources said Washington’s plan would also include US-backed air patrols over Ukraine.

Zelensky sounded cautious on Thursday, asking: ‘There’s a question I still can’t get an answer to: What will these security guarantees actually do?’

Whether Putin would ever accept such guarantees remains highly uncertain. He has repeatedly rejected the idea of foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.

On Friday, the Russian president offered no concessions, even as he told an annual news conference he was open to talks.

He said his terms would have to be met, pointing to the fact that his forces have advanced 6,000 square km this year.

How US officials have responded to those demands is unclear. Witkoff has previously suggested Russia has a legitimate claim to Crimea and the four occupied provinces.

Some figures within the Trump administration privately concede that Putin may be unwilling to settle for anything short of total victory.

‘I don’t know if Putin wants to do a deal or Putin wants to take the whole country. These are things that he has said openly,’ Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday.

‘We know what they wanted to achieve initially when the war began. They haven’t achieved those objectives.’