WASHINGTON (TNND) — Artificial intelligence is transforming the U.S. labor market faster than many policymakers, economists and workers expected — raising new questions about whether the technology is eliminating jobs or simply fundamentally reshaping how Americans work.
From the assembly line to the personal computer, innovation has repeatedly altered the nature of work. But some experts warn that artificial intelligence represents a disruption on a scale not seen before. (TNND)
From the assembly line to the personal computer, innovation has repeatedly altered the nature of work. But some experts warn that artificial intelligence represents a disruption on a scale not seen before.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has described AI as “a disruptor like nothing in our lifetimes,” saying nearly every industry is being caught off guard by how capable and accurate the technology has become, from health care and education to finance and professional services.
A logo of Microsoft is displayed during an event titled “Microsoft Build: AI Day” in Jakarta, Indonesia, Tuesday, April 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)
A recent study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests the potential impact could be significant. Researchers found that AI systems can already automate or replace tasks accounting for nearly 12 percent of the U.S. labor market — representing as much as $1.2 trillion in wages. The effects are expected to be most pronounced in white-collar fields, including finance, health care and professional services.
Labor market data are beginning to show signs of strain in some high-skilled occupations. Employment in several of the highest-paying roles, including management analysts and aerospace engineers, has fallen by roughly 3.5 percent over the past five years. Jobs in finance, architecture and engineering have declined by about 2 to 2.5 percent over the same period. The unemployment rate among college graduates has also edged higher, with AI-exposed majors such as computer engineering and architecture among those feeling the pressure.
Some economists attribute part of this slowdown to increased use of artificial intelligence, while others caution against overstating its impact. Martha Gimbel, executive director of Yale’s Budget Lab, says there is little evidence so far of broad-based job losses driven by AI.
“It’s not to say there’s no person in the U.S. who’s not affected by AI,” Gimbel said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “But we really can’t find any sort of macro effect of AI on the labor market.”
FILE – A Copilot page showing the incorporation of AI technology is shown in London, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant, File)
Some new data points to a more optimistic outlook. A recent analysis by Vanguard found both job and wage growth over the past two years in occupations more exposed to artificial intelligence, suggesting the technology may be creating new demand and boosting productivity rather than replacing workers outright. A separate survey found that most institutional investors and corporate chief executives expect artificial intelligence to drive an increase in hiring across all levels in 2026, reflecting growing confidence that AI adoption will expand — not shrink — the workforce.
As debate continues, lawmakers are moving to better track AI’s real-world effects. A bipartisan bill introduced earlier this month by Republican Sen. Josh Hawley and Democratic Sen. Mark Warner would require companies and federal agencies to report quarterly to the Department of Labor how many workers are laid off due to artificial intelligence.
Supporters say the measure would provide the first comprehensive nationwide picture of how AI is reshaping the American workforce — data they argue is essential as the technology continues to spread rapidly across the economy.