The world has been fighting the same battle again this year – the battle against persistent inflation and rising food prices.
Central banks cautiously lowered interest rates, citizens tightened their belts, and energy resources remained the main source of anxiety on the global economic map. In Serbia, energy was not just a matter of lighting and heating, but also of the budget, industry and political decisions. NIS, it seems, will remain a key issue in the coming year as well. Professor Dragan Đuričin explains to RTS what the economic forecasts for 2026 look like.
Professor Dragan Đuričin told Radio-Television of Serbia (RTS) that Serbia had been moving quite quickly until the end of 2024 in terms of investment, growth and structural changes.
“Then a certain slowdown occurred due to a social crisis that was combined with a political crisis, so growth rates slowed compared to what had been forecast, were halved, and we found ourselves in a situation that is difficult to manage,” says Đuričin.
He points out that “in the entire universe of risks that characterise the multiple crisis surrounding us, geopolitics and internal political issues have taken a dominant position”.
“When geopolitics becomes a macroeconomic variable, you are in a situation where, for positioning and survival, it is more important who you are connected with than who you are, that is, what your performance is like. This is very complicated for countries that want to develop their own distinct identity, because for such an identity, in addition to being shaped by national culture, history and a value system, it is also important to possess critical resources that are occupied by geopolitics,” Đuričin adds.
Furthermore, he says, the country’s landlocked position is also a problem.
“Unlike countries that have access to the sea, the situation is very complicated when you try to implement a national development strategy based on an independent policy,” says Đuričin.
The basic message in this period, he stresses, is that primary attention must be paid to the positioning of global political, military and economic powers.
“For such positioning, internal cohesion is essential. If we, as citizens of a state, are in a restless mode of behaviour, our positioning is made more difficult by that fact as well. Therefore, easing social tensions, tolerance, and answering the question of what I can give to my country, rather than what my country should give to me in this period, should be the main imperative of every citizen in Serbia and of the political class that articulates their interests through political programmes,” Đuričin states.
On NIS: When horses fight, foals suffer
When it comes to the situation with the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS), Professor Đuričin says that it is a consequence of the geopolitical situation we are in, and that a folk proverb can be applied: when horses fight, foals suffer.
“In the recent period, we have found ourselves in a situation where the so-called energy security of the state is threatened both in terms of oil and gas, and through them partly in terms of electricity as well, because heat and electricity are produced using inputs of roughly one third gas and oil,” Đuričin adds.
He reminds us that Serbia has received approval for gas supply until the end of March, that is, until the end of the winter season, and that there is also a certain relaxation and tolerance on the part of OFAC regarding the negotiations being conducted over the sale of NIS.
“However, for me, a major problem is the fact that the sale cannot be completed through a transfer of money. That money from the sale must remain in an escrow account, either in the buyer’s country or in Serbia. The initial negotiations reached a crisis point because of double guarantees that there would be no transfer of money either in the country of purchase or in the United States. This significantly increased the price, because guarantees have their cost, and no rational actor wants to give two guarantees for one transfer,” Đuričin explains.
He points out that he hopes this issue will also be on the table as part of negotiations on stopping the war in Ukraine, and that there may be greater flexibility.
In economics, it is important to stay above water
He underlines that the problem is not only oil and gas, but that energy is the primary issue, because without energy, both the economy and the state cannot thrive. As a result, economic growth this year is half of what was expected and forecast.
Asked whether growth of three percent next year is sufficient to avoid greater long-term lagging behind European countries, Đuričin says that projections are between three and four percent, but that Europe has lower growth than that, and Europe is Serbia’s primary investment and trading partner.
“Therefore, we are reducing the gap, but the pace of that reduction is slower than what we planned. In economics, it is important to stay above water so that you can fill your lungs, and when you fill your lungs, you then fill your head with ambitions, which means investments, because investments are the basis of sustainable economic development. They are the trigger for all factors that are distributed throughout the economic structure,” Đuričin adds.
We must not lose the vision of long-term development
In the first nine months of this year, there was a sharp decline in foreign direct investment. Speaking about how this could be compensated for, the professor says that there are no major turnarounds in a complex crisis.
“You are fighting to reduce threats and possibly take advantage of new challenges, but those challenges are fewer and fewer, so reducing the impact of threats is more important than using new opportunities. Serbia is on the route of several development priorities. The Expo project is the flagship of a fleet of different projects, primarily infrastructure projects, which will leave facilities that, after the Expo, will increase the level of employment and gross domestic product. In addition, it is a project of national importance, because it affects the geopolitical positioning of the country and its presentation to the world,” Đuričin says.
When it comes to energy, he says it must move towards renewable sources.
“The primary candidates here are energy production based on biomass, given that we have enormous potential,” the professor adds.
He emphasises that the activation period for these energy projects is at least medium-term, and usually long-term.
“For example, biomass can be implemented, both in terms of raw materials and capacity, within four years. But nuclear energy takes at least ten years. However, that does not mean we should stop development. We must have short-term projects that keep us above water, but we must not lose the vision of long-term development, because at the end of the day, that is what leads to structural changes,” Đuričin emphasises.
The biggest challenges next year
Asked what the biggest challenges for the Serbian economy will be in 2026, Đuričin says the challenge will be to achieve what has been planned.
“Keep in mind that this is a time of planning. Market fundamentalism proclaimed the doctrine of responding to market signals, while another doctrine, based on industrial policies, developed in Asia and whose best heir is China, is based on planning that is not about defining today what will happen tomorrow, but about contributing every day, based on a certain original development vision, to the sustainable development of the economy, society and the planet as a whole. To move towards something called ecological civilisation. That harmony of goals is today most valued by investors, and that is one of the criteria for their engagement in countries of this type,” Đuričin concluded.
(RTS, 27.12.2025)