A nationwide survey conducted by the Democracy Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center in December 2025 found a decline in trust in NATO as the best security guarantee. The study involved 2,000 respondents aged 18 and over in the territory controlled by Ukraine.
If in December 2024 joining NATO was considered the most reliable security guarantee by 55% of respondents, by December 2025 the answer dropped to 38%.
Along with this, other guarantee options remained less popular. Treaties on strategic defense cooperation with several NATO member countries were named the best security guarantee by 15% of respondents (in the previous period – 9%), and neutral status under international guarantees of sovereignty received support from 16% (in December 2024 – 12%).
Attitudes toward the occupied territories are also reflected in public opinion: 76% find it unacceptable to recognize these territories as part of the Russian Federation, 13% agree, and 11% declined to answer.
“This is a major risk for Ukraine. Unacceptable to Ukrainians. The referendum will not be favorable”
– Volodymyr Zelensky
Overall sentiment and prospects for peace
According to another KMIS survey conducted from November 26 to December 13, 2025, 63% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the war for as long as necessary, while about a quarter expect the war to end in the relatively near term.
As the same analysis shows, 75% of respondents consider the Russian plan unacceptable, while 17% support the Russian version of peace. The conditional Russian plan presumes that Ukraine withdraws troops from part of Donetsk, recognizes Crimea and the Donbas as part of Russia and renounces them forever, while Russia cements control over the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Part of Donbas is under Ukrainian military control; fierce fighting continues on the front. Zelensky previously stated in December that questions regarding possible territorial decisions should be decided by the Ukrainian people “in the format of elections or in the format of a referendum.” Meanwhile, Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the Russian president, commenting on this statement, said that “the whole Donbas is Russian.”
Overall, the survey results emphasize a shift in public opinion: trust in NATO as the main security guarantee is decreasing, but society sometimes considers different formats of guarantees and paths to a peaceful settlement of the conflict.