Estonian foreign intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin, pictured, said Russia has no plans to attack Baltic or NATO countries during an interview with Estonian public broadcaster ERR on Monday. His assessment contrasts with recent warnings from NATO leaders, including Secretary General Mark Rutte. (Estonian Defense Ministry)
STUTTGART, Germany — Russian provocations in Eastern Europe are on the decline, according to Estonia’s spy chief, who says President Vladimir Putin shows no signs of wanting to attack NATO in the coming year.
The threat assessment out of Estonia, a NATO frontline state on the border with Russia, also indicated that increased allied military maneuvers in the Baltics are having a deterrent effect.
“We’ve seen that, as a result of our responses, Russia has altered its behavior following various incidents that have occurred more broadly in the region. So far, it’s still clear that Russia respects NATO and is currently trying to avoid any open conflict,” Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin told public broadcaster ERR in an interview Monday.
Rosin’s analysis of the current security situation contrasts with recent statements by other top officials in Europe, including NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who warned earlier this month that the prospect of war loomed over Europe.
“We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way,” Rutte said during a speech in Berlin.
Rosin, however, said that Russia has taken note of NATO countries’ efforts to ramp up investments in military firepower. Efforts to track Russian activities around the Baltics also have altered the Kremlin’s calculus, he said.
The past year has been marked by a series of high-profile incidents that has sparked NATO to take a more vigilant stance on its eastern flank. In September, NATO aircraft were forced for the first time in alliance history to shoot down an aerial threat over Poland when a swarm of about 20 Russian drones crossed into the country. Days later, Russian fighter planes crossed into Estonian airspace. Other suspected Russian drone incursions in other NATO countries such as Romania also have rattled allies.
But Rosin said Russia has since adjusted drone and airplane flight paths “to minimize risk.”
“We’re also seeing that Russian aircraft are now very carefully monitoring their flight paths over the Baltic Sea, strictly adhering to their trajectories to avoid triggering incidents,” he said.
Meanwhile, a series of suspected sabotage incidents in the Baltic Sea in late 2024 and early 2025 that involved the cutting of undersea communication and energy cables, prompted NATO to launch a new surveillance mission in the region. Rosin said those efforts paid security dividends in 2025.
“What we’ve seen is that, in response to reactions from the West or NATO, Russia has taken various measures to prevent such incidents from happening again in the future,” Rosin said.
There have been no cable cutting-related incidents since NATO’s Baltic Sentry mission was launched last January, he said.
“Of course, this doesn’t rule out the possibility of future incidents because military activity remains high and the war in Ukraine is ongoing. In theory, such events are still possible, but at the moment we don’t see any indication that Russia is deliberately trying to escalate,” Rosin said.