Norway reaches 98% EV share as Europe enters the AFIR policy era

Norway has effectively completed its transition to electric mobility. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 97.6% of all new passenger car registrations in December 2025, according to data released on 2 January by Norwegian Road Federation (OFV).

The year-end surge was largely fuelled by consumer urgency ahead of new VAT rules for electric vehicles, which came into force on 1 January 2026.

Buyers rushed to register vehicles before fiscal conditions changed, underlining the strong sensitivity of the Norwegian market to tax instruments.

For the full year 2025, BEVs reached a 95.9% market share, effectively relegating internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to a marginal position in the country’s new car market.

While Tesla remained the best-selling brand overall, December’s figures highlight how policy signals, rather than technology constraints, now shape demand in mature EV markets.

Diverging dynamics across Europe

Norway’s near-total electrification contrasts with more volatile conditions in larger European markets. Preliminary figures from France show a 5.8% year-on-year contraction of the overall car market in December 2025, reflecting broader economic and structural pressures.

Within that context, Tesla registrations in France fell by 66% year-on-year in December, a decline partly explained by shipment timing, but also by intensifying competition from European manufacturers and new entrants.

Brands backed by groups such as Stellantis, alongside Chinese OEMs including BYD, are gaining ground as price pressure and model availability reshape purchasing decisions.

The divergence illustrates a wider European reality: electrification is advancing, but not uniformly, and remains closely tied to national incentive schemes, industrial strategies and consumer confidence.

2026 marks the start of the AFIR implementation phase

Beyond sales figures, 2026 opens a decisive regulatory chapter for European eMobility. On 1 January, EU Member States reached the deadline to submit their National Policy Frameworks (NPFs) to the European Commission under the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR).

These frameworks define how each country plans to meet binding targets for charging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure along the TEN-T network, shifting the focus from voluntary commitments to enforceable deployment milestones.

In parallel, market operators are adjusting to a more mature environment. Heavy-duty charging specialist Milence introduced country-specific pricing as of 1 January, moving away from a flat pan-European tariff.

The change reflects diverging national electricity prices, grid fees and operational costs, and signals a broader trend towards localisation in charging economics.

From 8 January 2026, all newly installed publicly accessible charging points must also comply with the ISO 15118 standard, enabling Plug & Charge and smart charging functionalities.

The requirement aims to ensure interoperability, cybersecurity and future-proofing as vehicle-to-grid and advanced energy services scale across Europe.

From incentives to execution

Norway’s experience shows what is possible when long-term incentives, taxation policy and infrastructure planning align.

For the rest of Europe, the challenge in 2026 is different: less about convincing consumers, and more about executing regulation, scaling infrastructure and stabilising market conditions.

As AFIR moves from legislation to implementation, the success of Europe’s electric transition will increasingly depend on delivery, not ambition.

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