In crypto, when new technical infrastructure launches, investors tend to assume that the price of the corresponding coin should instantly rerate upwards. That’s a tempting mental shortcut to take, because it sometimes proves to be true. But the odds are good that for XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), the path forward will be more about proving that the new tech is valuable rather than simply reaping returns from the headlines documenting its launch.

In other words, 2026 will probably be a year of stress-testing the stuff that shipped in 2025. Here’s why you shouldn’t be holding your breath for 2026 to be a massive year for this coin.

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In mid-2025, the XRP Ledger’s (XRPL’s) new Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) launched. Now, developers can run smart contracts using familiar tools from the Ethereum ecosystem, instead of learning a completely new tech stack. That’s a big enabler for the chain, as it massively lowers the switching costs for developers who are currently building on other networks but would be willing to build on the XRPL if there was a reason to do so — like lots of capital seeking a return from an investment in a new decentralized finance (DeFi) service, for example.

Still, compatibility with the languages programmers are already using is not the same thing as actual traction. There are plenty of other leading blockchains with EVM compatibility. A chain can offer great tooling and still fail to attract users or developers (or capital) if there isn’t a compelling reason to be there instead of somewhere else. So in practice, the growth of activity on XRP’s EVM sidechain in 2026, or lack thereof, will be one of the things driving the coin’s price.

Thus far, the evidence is pretty clear on how strong an effect the current level of EVM sidechain activity is having on XRP’s price. For all of Jan. 7, a piddling $38 in chain revenue was generated. There is effectively zero in the way of economic activity happening there. That could and probably will change for the better over time. But for now, there’s no reason to suspect that it might power XRP to a huge bull run in 2026, because there’s no trend of growth.

This could change if Ripple, the company that issues XRP, does a big push to promote the sidechain and other XRPL features, which is the topic we’ll now turn to.

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