In the middle of the week, two motions of no confidence will be debated in the French National Assembly, following the conclusion of the Mercosur agreement, which the French president was unable to prevent. Proposed by La France Insoumise (LFI) on the Left and the Rassemblement National (RN) on the Right, they once again have little chance of success, but the government knows that its existence remains fragile, especially as the country still has no budget. In high places, there is talk of the prospect of a double election in the coming weeks: legislative and municipal elections could well bring the French to the polls at the same time.
The municipal elections are scheduled to be held on consecutive Sundays, March 15th and 22nd. The campaign, which was still dormant before Christmas, has been gathering pace since the beginning of the year and giving rise to heated debates: with a year to go before the presidential election, the municipal elections will allow a trend to emerge, especially in the big cities where the race is highly publicised. In Paris, the competition will pit the successors to the current team, the highly controversial minister of culture in the Lecornu government, Rachida Dati, against new faces, such as MEP Sarah Knafo, representing the Reconquête party led by Éric Zemmour, who is her partner.
LFI and RN have each put forward a motion of no confidence to protest against the adoption of the Mercosur treaty at the European level. Macron has shown his absolute hostility to the treaty in the final weeks of negotiations in the hope of winning public favour, but this has not been enough, as his commitment has appeared opportunistic and insincere. Both parties would like to bring down the government over this failure, supported by French public opinion, which is very hostile to the trade agreement.
If one of the two motions of no confidence, which are due to be examined between Tuesday and Wednesday in the National Assembly, is adopted, the head of government will have to resign. This time, it should be followed by a dissolution. According to AFP, Lecornu and Macron agree on this choice: to start from scratch and not appoint yet another government of losers. In such a case, the next legislative elections are likely to be held at the same time as the municipal elections. The interior ministry is already working on this possibility.
Lecornu is annoyed by the time wasted in the Assembly discussing motions—time taken away from negotiations on the 2026 budget, which have still not been concluded.
At the local level, the announcement of a potential double election is causing consternation. David Lisnard, a figure of the liberal right and president of the Association of Mayors of France, is protesting against this prospect, which he describes as a “political manoeuvre” that would “hold hostage” local elections for the benefit of the government’s needs, while mayors of small towns denounce the advanced chaos in political life that is dismaying the French.