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The UK’s most senior military figure has admitted the armed forces are not ready for a full-scale conflict “of the kind we might face”, warning he lacked the immediate funding for a rapid modernisation of the military.
Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the defence staff, told a committee of MPs on Monday that the military faced an in-year budget shortfall and would have to make difficult decisions, at a time when warnings of the threat from Russia have grown.
“We are not as ready as we need to be for the kind of full-scale conflict that we might face,” Knighton told the parliamentary defence committee.
While Knighton sought to shield the government from criticism by arguing that defence spending would rise from 2027, his comments are likely to add to concerns that the UK’s military ambitions are not yet backed by the necessary funding from Sir Keir Starmer’s government.
UK defence spending will rise to 2.5 per cent of GDP from 2027, up from around 2.3 per cent when Labour came to power. But commitments to raise spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035 have not yet been allocated funding by the government. Knighton indicated he expected no additional funding.
“That is the envelope we are working within,” he told the committee.
In at times heated discussions with MPs, Knighton said that as things stood he was not in a position to both deliver existing military programmes and the recommendations of the government’s flagship Strategic Defence Review.
The SDR was launched last summer as the blueprint for transforming the UK military to help face the threat from Russia and to meet all of the country’s commitments to Nato.
“We can’t do everything we would want to do as quickly as we would want to do it within the budget that is set,” Knighton told the committee. “And that requires ministers to make difficult trade-offs.”
The government’s Defence Investment Plan, which is designed to flesh out the SDR with plans to purchase the equipment to modernise the armed forces, has been repeatedly delayed.
It was expected to come before Christmas but wrangling between the services — and with the prime minister and chancellor for extra funding — meant it could not be delivered. Knighton declined to say when it would be completed. The FT has reported it could be delayed until March.
Tan Dhesi, chair of the defence select committee, said many members were “exasperated” by the delay to the DIP.
“We seem to be trundling along rather than realising the urgency of the moment,” Dhesi said.
Chair of the defence committee Tan Dhesi said many members were ‘exasperated’ © House of Commons
Asked if the planned spending increases would allow the military to fully implement the recommendations of the SDR, without making cuts elsewhere, Knighton said it was not possible.
“If we wanted to do everything that’s currently in the programme and everything that’s in the SDR with the budget we have, then the answer is no,” he said.
He argued he was not saying specifically that there would be cuts to programmes, but emphasised that ministers had to decide.
Knighton declined to comment on reports, including in the FT, that the funding gap for implementing the SDR could be as wide as £28bn over the next decade, saying the information was designated as “secret”.