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    Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Crypto: Market Update 1/15/2026

    January 16th, 2026 by
    Trefis Team

    SPY: S&P 500 logo

    Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.

    • Equity rose 0.3% yesterday and increased over the last week and month as well.
    • Bonds dropped 0.1% yesterday, after gaining 0.3% during the week and month.
    • Gold decreased 0.6% in the last session, with weekly and monthly gains of 2.9% and 7%.
    • Following a 0.8% decline yesterday, Commodities are up 1.4% for the week and 1.7% for the month.
    • Real Estate gained 0.7% yesterday, continuing its weekly and monthly upward trend.
    • Bitcoin fell 0.7% yesterday, compared to a 5.7% rise last week and 11% over the month.
     
    ETF
    1D
    1W
    1M
    Equity SPY 0.3% 0.4% 1.7% Bonds AGG -0.1% 0.3% 0.3% Gold GLD -0.6% 2.9% 7.0% Commodities DBC -0.8% 1.4% 1.7% Real Estate VNQ 0.7% 2.5% 2.0% Bitcoin BTCUSD -0.7% 5.7% 11.4%

    Why does it matter?

    • See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
    • Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
    • Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.

    Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager – whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

    Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile

     
    ETF
    Return
    Volatility
    Sharpe
    Equity SPY 15.4% 14.9% 85.6% Bonds AGG 1.9% 5.1% -10.1% Gold GLD 14.8% 14.2% 86.2% Commodities DBC 7.5% 15.7% 36.5% Real Estate VNQ 5.7% 17.7% 23.8% Bitcoin BTCUSD 70.7% 76.6% 99.4%

    Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years

    How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?

     
    Equity
    Bonds
    Gold
    Commodities
    Real Estate
    Bitcoin
    Equity – 12% | 20% | 8.4% 5.5% | 13% | 4.5% 35% | 24% | 38% 73% | 69% | 63% 26% | 38% | 40% Bonds 12% | 20% | 8.4% – 34% | 33% | 10% -0.2% | -2.9% | -12% 28% | 38% | 35% 11% | 7.5% | -3.0% Gold 5.5% | 13% | 4.5% 34% | 33% | 10% – 26% | 34% | 33% 13% | 20% | 12% 10% | 9.2% | 9.6% Commodities 35% | 24% | 38% -0.2% | -2.9% | -12% 26% | 34% | 33% – 24% | 16% | 25% 10% | 11% | 22% Real Estate 73% | 69% | 63% 28% | 38% | 35% 13% | 20% | 12% 24% | 16% | 25% – 17% | 25% | 21% Bitcoin 26% | 38% | 40% 11% | 7.5% | -3.0% 10% | 9.2% | 9.6% 10% | 11% | 22% 17% | 25% | 21% –

    The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order

    Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?

     
    ETF
    Inflation Shock
    Covid Pandemic
    2018 Correction
    Equity SPY -23.0% -30.4% -19.3% Bonds AGG -14.1% -2.1% 1.4% Gold GLD -7.7% -6.3% 5.0% Commodities DBC 20.5% -23.7% -16.5% Real Estate VNQ -29.8% -41.6% -11.1% Bitcoin BTCUSD -56.0% -33.5% -37.4%

    The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed

    The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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