I supported the Tisza candidates with money in the 5+1 vacillating district – where do you think the election will be decided?

It is an opposition cliché (but still true) that Fidesz must be beaten primarily in the countryside.

One of the innovations of the Tisza Party is that, in addition to the system changer card, it is now possible to support individual candidates in a targeted manner. I was like: why not? In April, there may easily be districts where a few hundred (or in extreme cases even fewer) votes decide the mandate.

I took several factors into account when choosing the constituencies to be supported: primarily the analyzes of the Electoral Geography and the mandate estimates of the 21 Research Center, and secondly the activity of the local Tisza islands (as far as this is visible in the online space), the embeddedness of the candidate, and personal sympathy.

I also intend the post to be a discussion point: if anyone else is thinking about targeted support, it would be good to collect, where money can have the greatest impact. I would be particularly interested in the opinions of Tisza Island members, who also see the local power relations and opportunities of the given district from the inside.

Those I supported:

1. Zala 03 – Nagykanizsa (Csaba Lovkó)

It is a recurring, important oscillating district in several analyses. Winnable, but every vote counts. It was no accident that MP organized one of the party congresses here in the summer.

2. Győr-Moson-Sopron 05 – Mosonmagyaróvár (Dr. Krisztina Porpáczy)

Support for Fidesz has dropped dramatically in the city since the municipal elections. Medical candidate with local embedding. I saw that there is still room for growth in terms of online presence (his FB page has not yet produced a large reach).

3. Hajdú-Bihar 06 – Hajdúböszörmény (Éva Göröghné Bocskai)

Wobbly district, can be won with a lot of field work. Here, the personal impression also weighed heavily on me: based on Partizán and Telex interviews, he is a credible candidate who wants to do something for the neighborhood, who already caused a surprise in the mayoral election at the age of 24.

4. Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg 02 – Part of Nyíregyháza (Lajos Péter Szakács)

An interesting mix: Nyíregyháza is strongly Tiszás, next to it there are several villages and small towns that used to be massively Fidesz. Here, it is up to you to decide which of the rural and urban voters can be better mobilized. If you manage to convert a few hundred voters in smaller settlements, that is a huge step. At first glance, the candidate seems suitable for this, more or less charismatic.

5. Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok 02 – Jászberény (Tibor Ferenc Halmai)

According to Vétó, it is a difficult but not impossible district, with several small settlements. Compared to other cities, Jászberény became disillusioned with Fidesz quite early, as evidenced by the consecutive victories of Lóránt Budai, ex-Jobbik, now independent, and the fact that in 2024 Tisza won more here as well. The candidate is a local activist, his reputation can still be worked on. EDIT: in the meantime it was pointed out to me (correctly) that the candidate is a well-known, multiple-awarded former police captain – and his opponent in the colors of Fidesz is the local "mobster" renowned János Pócs. It promises to be an interesting fight.

+1 Pest 03 (Andrea Bujdosó)

It doesn’t look good on paper, but there is no such thing as a “big enough” victory against Tomika Menczer. If he fails, fail spectacularly, with a rate that even his own party members will be forced to explain. That’s why support went here, let it be as painful as possible.