Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the longest serving leader in the Middle East, faces an existential choice if he wants to preserve his rule and the theocracy that has governed Iran for nearly 50 years.
At least 2,600 people have been killed in the latest crackdown, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, the highest toll of any unrest during Khamenei’s tenure.
Misfortune has piled on the supreme leader since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. In a series of wars that ensued, Israel pummeled Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran itself, striking the country directly for the first time ever. In late 2024, another key Iranian ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, fell to an Islamist rebellion.
Last summer, an emboldened Israel launched a blistering attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and missile sites, including residential areas of the capital as it attacked top military officers and nuclear scientists. Toward the end of the 12-day war, American B-2 bombers hit key Iranian nuclear facilities with massive bombs.
If Khamenei is unwilling to compromise to salvage the system, hard-line loyalists of the Islamic Republic could take action to either usurp or marginalize him, said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
kjleebio on
Genuine question, what will happen if the Ayatollah does collapse? It seems like there is no plan on replacing the current government, making it seem more likely that Iran will turn into another Syria or dead state.
Another question, if the Ayatollah does collapse, what faction within Iran is most likely to take over and how will they even solve the various problems that now exist such as water? Wouldn’t that mean conflict with Afghanistan?
edit: a bit of hopium, but I hope that Iran will somehow make it to a better tunnel this year. I just want one good thing happening this year.
TiredOfDebates on
Iran did something akin to the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Except they likely went far further with the violence, due to the dispersed nature of the protests.
The claimed figure of roughly 2,600 protesters killed, over a few nights.
There were over 18,000 arrested, since protests began on December 28th.
Iran is basically under martial law. There is a curfew of 8pm in every populated area.
The IRGC was a body designed for the express purpose of domestic population control and suppression. It’s shock troops are indoctrinated. And now Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are assisting with the nightly patrols. Those who have no attachment to the locals.
Iran claims, even to the families of the deceased, that those killed were killed by ISIS terrorists, or that the protester was killed as a terrorist.
They’ve declared a “40 day mourning period”, where the Iranian internet will remain shut down. This is clearly an attempt to stop communications between would be protesters, allow Iran’s regime to establish a narrative, and allow the slaughter to be normalized. Enough time passes, and rage will give way to grief and even acceptance.
Authoritarianism.
The regime was challenged. They killed indiscriminately, to terrorize the population. They will censor the truth and rewrite history.
That might be it folks. Iranians have as much chance at democracy as those Chinese students in Tiananmen Square.
3 Comments
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the longest serving leader in the Middle East, faces an existential choice if he wants to preserve his rule and the theocracy that has governed Iran for nearly 50 years.
At least 2,600 people have been killed in the latest crackdown, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, the highest toll of any unrest during Khamenei’s tenure.
Misfortune has piled on the supreme leader since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. In a series of wars that ensued, Israel pummeled Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran itself, striking the country directly for the first time ever. In late 2024, another key Iranian ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, fell to an Islamist rebellion.
Last summer, an emboldened Israel launched a blistering attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and missile sites, including residential areas of the capital as it attacked top military officers and nuclear scientists. Toward the end of the 12-day war, American B-2 bombers hit key Iranian nuclear facilities with massive bombs.
If Khamenei is unwilling to compromise to salvage the system, hard-line loyalists of the Islamic Republic could take action to either usurp or marginalize him, said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
Genuine question, what will happen if the Ayatollah does collapse? It seems like there is no plan on replacing the current government, making it seem more likely that Iran will turn into another Syria or dead state.
Another question, if the Ayatollah does collapse, what faction within Iran is most likely to take over and how will they even solve the various problems that now exist such as water? Wouldn’t that mean conflict with Afghanistan?
edit: a bit of hopium, but I hope that Iran will somehow make it to a better tunnel this year. I just want one good thing happening this year.
Iran did something akin to the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Except they likely went far further with the violence, due to the dispersed nature of the protests.
The claimed figure of roughly 2,600 protesters killed, over a few nights.
There were over 18,000 arrested, since protests began on December 28th.
Iran is basically under martial law. There is a curfew of 8pm in every populated area.
The IRGC was a body designed for the express purpose of domestic population control and suppression. It’s shock troops are indoctrinated. And now Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are assisting with the nightly patrols. Those who have no attachment to the locals.
Iran claims, even to the families of the deceased, that those killed were killed by ISIS terrorists, or that the protester was killed as a terrorist.
They’ve declared a “40 day mourning period”, where the Iranian internet will remain shut down. This is clearly an attempt to stop communications between would be protesters, allow Iran’s regime to establish a narrative, and allow the slaughter to be normalized. Enough time passes, and rage will give way to grief and even acceptance.
Authoritarianism.
The regime was challenged. They killed indiscriminately, to terrorize the population. They will censor the truth and rewrite history.
That might be it folks. Iranians have as much chance at democracy as those Chinese students in Tiananmen Square.