Here is the full transcript of MIT Professor and Pentagon advisor Theodore Postol’s interview on The Greater Eurasia Podcast with host Glenn Diesen, January 19, 2026.  

Brief Notes: In this interview, MIT Professor Emeritus and nuclear weapons expert Theodore Postol provides a detailed technical assessment of Russia’s new Oreshnik hypersonic missile. He moves past the political hype to explain the weapon’s unique design, debunking common myths while highlighting its specialized conventional power and the lack of any current defensive countermeasures. The discussion offers a critical look at how this technology impacts modern warfare and why it is essential for policymakers to accurately understand its true strategic capabilities.

Introduction

GLENN DIESEN: Welcome back to the program. We are joined again by Ted Postol, a professor emeritus at MIT, who is an expert in nuclear weapons and their delivery systems and has also worked at the Pentagon. So thank you for coming back on.

THEODORE POSTOL: Oh, it’s a great pleasure to be on. I’ve been off the air for a little while and it’s a pleasure to be back.

GLENN DIESEN: I’m glad to have you back.

Assessing the Oreshnik Missile

GLENN DIESEN: Well, the reason why I really want to speak with you is to get a professional assessment of this new weapon of the Russians, at least what we know of the weapon so far. Of course, they haven’t let you inspect it, but there’s still ways of gathering information.

We saw first one test launch with a dummy warhead, and then now a second one, an Oreshnik hypersonic missile launched from Russia into Western Ukraine in what was evidently a warning to NATO not to escalate the war any further.

But a lot of questions still remain to be answered. That is, how powerful is the weapon? Why is it such a dangerous weapon? To what extent is it a game changer?

You get the idea that the Russians have an incentive perhaps to oversell it, while the Europeans have an interest in underselling it, that is to be more dismissive in order not to suggest that the Russians have too much advantage. So it would be nice to just have a professional take on this. So hence where you come in.

I was wondering if you can inform us a bit about this. What is actually this weapon?

Updated Insights from the Oreshnik Attack

THEODORE POSTOL: It’s always a mistake to dismiss a powerful weapon, but I think that there have been overstatements and understatements made on both sides, and this attack on Lvov has given us some additional insights.

So what I might, in fact, let me just put on my first slide and we’ll—so I’m calling this little discussion here “Updated Insights from the Oreshnik Attack of January 8th on Lvov.” I’ve, as often, I’ve been benefited greatly from my collaboration with a colleague of mine, Prisca Busk, who I put on his name clearly in an email for him.

But I think we do have a much clearer understanding of this weapon now, not a full understanding, and I’ll point out where we still have things to learn about it. And it may not be pleasant when we learn these things, but we’ll see.

A Powerful Conventional Weapon

The first thing that’s important to keep in mind is that it is a very powerful conventional weapon, but it is a conventional weapon. That is to say it’s delivering munitions right now, it appears that they mostly do damage by kinetic impact. I’ll discuss this in some greater detail.

If they take the submunitions that this weapon launches—I’ll describe what I mean by submunition—and add high explosives to them, they could increase the damage-inflicting capability per submunition. But it’s not going to be a game changer.

The only game changer would be if they put nuclear weapons on top of the Oreshnik. And that of course is the ultimate game changer. And of course, like any ballistic missile of significant payload capability, this could certainly deliver nuclear weapons. And I’ll briefly talk about this possibility.

But I think the fact that an Oreshnik can deliver a nuclear weapon is really not especially relevant in the context of all the nuclear weapons that can be delivered already. So it doesn’t add any new twist to the mixture other than ultimate catastrophe and probably the end of modern civilization because of the escalation that would follow.

The Policy Concern

So this is the main concern that I have from a policy perspective. I’ll talk, of course, technology with regard to the Oreshnik. The important point I want to make here is that a nuclear response to an Oreshnik missile attack—that’s just a conventional missile attack—could not possibly be proportional to the conventional use of this missile.

My concern is really that there’s been so much hype on the capability of this missile. Many people talking about it as a sub-nuclear capability, things of that type, nearly nuclear—it’s not close to that. And I’ll explain why.

And I’m not trying to attack it as a powerful conventional weapon. I’ll discuss that. But my main concern is that the misunderstanding among policymakers could lead to a completely uninformed decision to believe that you should respond proportionally with a nuclear weapon to an Oreshnik attack. No way that would be justifiable. And I’ll explain why.

And that’s the important policy point here. This is not a weapon that approaches the strike power of a nuclear weapon. Very, very important. That’s the bottom line message.

Technical Specifications

The hypersonic submunition attack of November 21st on Dnipro told us at least it has 36 submunitions and it seems to have six, what I might call buses. By a bus, I mean a small powered vehicle that itself carries about six munitions. And each of these munitions probably weigh around 70 or 80 kilograms each, probably somewhere in this range.

The missile is not a two-stage missile as all this discussion has been going on. It’s a one-stage missile. It seems, based on comments that we’re now seeing—information now being released by the Russians—that it’s the first stage of an old intermediate range missile that was, interestingly enough, a big motivator for the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty.

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