Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew between 1.8% and 2.2% in 2025, according to two separate assessments released by the government and an independent analytical think tank, highlighting differing evaluations of economic performance under full-scale war conditions.
Preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture put GDP growth at 2.2%, while the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) revised its estimate downward to 1.8% year-on-year.
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Both assessments point to continued economic expansion despite sustained Russian attacks on infrastructure, elevated security risks, and persistent logistical constraints.
The government released its estimate of real GDP growth on Jan. 16, while IER published its updated 2025 figure on Wednesday. The ministry said it would continue to update macroeconomic assessments as official statistics and key indicators are finalized, while IER is expected to refine its estimates as more detailed data becomes available.
The final official estimate of real GDP growth for 2025, reported by Ukraine’s State Statistics Service (Ukrstat), had not been published at the time of writing.
Earlier, Ukrainian think tanks and investment banks downgraded their growth forecasts, according to estimates compiled by the Centre for Economic Strategy. The median expectation now stands at 2% GDP growth for 2025, down from a 2.25% consensus in July. This represents a slowdown compared to actual GDP growth of 2.9% in 2024.
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Ukraine’s think tank revises real GDP growth estimate downward
Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.8% in 2025 compared to the previous year, according to a revised estimate by IER, underscoring steady but fragile growth under wartime conditions.
The updated figure is marginally lower than IER’s earlier estimate of around 2% and below preliminary calculations by the Economy Ministry, which projected 2.2% growth for 2025.
Despite the revision, analysts say the economy continued to expand throughout the year, even as Russia’s full-scale invasion inflicted sustained damage on infrastructure and constrained key sectors
IER highlighted uneven sectoral dynamics, with agriculture and trade supporting growth, while mining, energy, manufacturing, and transport remained under pressure due to infrastructure damage and power supply disruptions.
Government sees growth closer to forecast
In contrast, the Economy Ministry’s preliminary estimate places real GDP growth at 2.2% in 2025.
According to the ministry, positive dynamics were recorded across several key sectors, most notably domestic trade – primarily retail – as well as construction and manufacturing.
Industrial growth was driven in part by expanded production of defense-related goods, pharmaceuticals, metallurgical products, construction materials, and other manufactured output, reflecting a shift toward wartime demand and import substitution.
The ministry said recovery and business development programs financed by international financial assistance helped sustain economic activity in 2025.
Household consumption also increased amid continued wage growth. The ministry cited estimates by job platform Work.ua showing that as of Jan. 6, 2026, the average nominal salary based on job vacancies rose 30.8% year-on-year to Hr.27,530 ($656), while the average salary listed in résumés increased 39.9% to Hr.30,216 ($720).
Budget-funded capital spending was another major driver. According to the State Treasury, capital expenditures of the consolidated budget increased by 17.3% as of Dec. 1, 2025, compared to the same date a year earlier.
The ministry also pointed to large-scale spending on restoring critical infrastructure, housing programs, and procurement of domestically produced goods for the defense industry.
Energy attacks, weaker harvest slow momentum, government says
The ministry cited mass missile attacks on electricity generation facilities and, for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion, strikes on gas extraction infrastructure.
Agricultural output was also affected by unfavorable weather conditions, leading to lower harvests for some crops.
Additional pressures stemmed from logistical constraints, the halt of natural gas transit via pipelines, and weaker demand from sectors such as agriculture.
Previously, in an interview with Kyiv Post, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva identified damaged energy and heating infrastructure and labor shortages as the two main drags on Ukraine’s economic growth.
Power disruptions continue to weigh on business activity, while the labor force has shrunk due to mobilization, displacement abroad, and lower female workforce participation linked to childcare constraints. Skills mismatches represent a third constraint on Ukraine’s economic growth, the IMF chief said.