Returning to the November wage statistics, a mixed picture emerges when individual areas are examined, although there are no sharp changes anywhere. In the business sector, for example, an average wage growth rate of 8.1% is high for an economy that has been stagnating for three years. In the budgetary sector, double-digit wage growth (10.7%) continued. By contrast, November saw a significant increase in the non-profit sector, with wage growth of 12%–one of the highest rates in the past year and a half. Looking at individual sectors, the construction industry clearly stands out, with significant acceleration in wage growth, which may be related to the expected upturn in that field. Furthermore, an even more significant acceleration in wage growth was observed in the public administration sector.
With regard to 2025, it is almost certain that we will see an average annual wage increase of around 9.0%, which is significantly higher than was expected at the beginning of the year. Labour hoarding continues to exacerbate labour shortages and keep the labour market tight, putting sustained pressure on wages.
The biggest question is how companies will manage a minimum wage increase of between 7 (skilled labour) and 11% (unskilled labour) if the expected economic recovery in early 2026 fails to materialise. In a year characterised by weak demand, some companies may pass on more of their wage costs, generating additional inflation. Others may begin to rationalise their workforce due to the expected failure of the recovery. Looking at the past month or two, it seems that the latter scenario has already begun to some extent. We expect average wage growth of just over 10% for 2026 as a whole.