China’s population falls again as birth rate drops to lowest since 1949
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/chinas-population-falls-again-as-birth-rate-drops-to-lowest-since-1949
China’s population falls again as birth rate drops to lowest since 1949
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/chinas-population-falls-again-as-birth-rate-drops-to-lowest-since-1949
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A decade after ending China’s longtime one-child policy, the country’s authorities are pushing a range of ideas and policies to try to encourage more births — tactics that range from cash subsidies to taxing condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers.
The efforts haven’t paid off yet. At least, that’s what population figures released Monday show for what is now the world’s second-most populous nation. China’s population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year.
Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 — 5.63 per 1,000 people — is the lowest on record since 1949, the year that Mao Zedong’s Communists overthrew the Nationalists and began running China. Figures before that, under the previous Nationalist government, were not available.
Only people having kids are people in countries with nothing to lose
They still have 8 million+ births per year. Massive numbers.
“lowest since 1949”
1949 is when record-keeping began. A TFR less than 1.0 is probably the lowest ever.
Give people time and money and they will make babies. You have squeezed people into slavery and wonder why they don’t make more slaves.
Everyone needs to realize that in the age of AI you are not going to be dependent on human labor force as much as you used to. Dropping birth rates are not going to be an issue. In fact, they would probably need older people who have money and can spend on the products the robots make. It’s countries with rising population that need to step back and think what they will do with a billion people once there are no jobs left.
Prediction: Banning contraception will turn out to be the only effective strategy for reversing population decline. Only authoritarian dictatorships will have the power to do it, which means that they will have an important long run strategic advantage over open democratic societies.
The same dynamic will play out in religion as well. Religions that severely ban contraception (not just a soft rule, but complete socially enforced ban) will overwhelm religions that do not.
Create a safe world, where the child places no new financial or standard of living burden on the parents and people might have more.
Right now, who the hell wants to bring a child to this anywhere?
China and East Asia rapidly grew their economies but maybe because of this (and low immigration) have even lower birth rates than other developed countries. Rabbit and the Turtle maybe slower growth is better in the long term.
Taxing condoms is fucking wild. Inventivizing people to have kids is one thing. Punishing them for choosing not to is another.
Their economy is still pumping. How long can they go on with high gdp without getting the population situation under control ?
I wonder if a legit, not commercialized dating app would help.
Like if they just made a really good high quality dating app that actually wanted people to get together and was intentionally designed to help people find compatibility partners.
Hard to say this is surprising given the housing costs, work culture, and urbanization pressures there. A lot of countries seem to be hitting the same wall once people have more choices and higher costs. What stands out to me is how fast it’s happening compared to others. Curious whether policy tweaks can even move the needle anymore or if this is mostly locked in.