America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-30/trump-immigration-crackdown-could-shrink-us-population-for-first-time
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*Shawn Donnan for Bloomberg News*
If there’s one single consistent advantage the United States has carried since its founding, it is its ability to draw talent and expand its population. Now, as the country prepares to celebrate its 250th birthday and ponders its appetite for President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration, the US risks recording a historic and economic milestone decades ahead of schedule: Based on at least one respected estimate, 2026 may see the first real population decline in American history.
Even if that milestone doesn’t happen this year, there’s broad agreement among experts on both sides of the immigration debate that Trump’s second term is hastening a critical point — when net migration into the US stops offsetting the declining births and rising deaths that come with an aging native-born population. The more Trump cracks down on immigration, the sooner the US population plateaus or even shrinks.
A country’s population is an essential element of its economic mass. The shrinking population of China, which in 2025 recorded its lowest birth rate since Communist rule began in 1949, is one good reason it may never overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. Japan’s population peaked at 128 million in 2010, and its decline has dragged on growth for years. Europe’s worsening demographics have long fed its narrative of economic malaise.
The US has for years mostly stood apart from that conversation. In 2023, when the US Census last issued long-run forecasts for the population, the main prediction was that it would decline for the first time in 2081. But the way things are going, this year the US is at best poised to record a lower population growth rate than Germany, where an aging population has contributed to its reputation as the “sick man of Europe.”
Chart: [The US Has Grown Throughout Its History](https://www.reddit.com/r/bbgphotos/comments/1qr1qlz/the_us_has_grown_throughout_its_history/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
[Read the full essay here.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-30/trump-immigration-crackdown-could-shrink-us-population-for-first-time?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2OTc2ODQ4OCwiZXhwIjoxNzcwMzczMjg4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUOU85NkZLR0NURkwwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJEMzU0MUJFQjhBQUY0QkUwQkFBOUQzNkI3QjlCRjI4OCJ9.OZlgncepFLAzBjgc_7Wxs4wogZq6eHbK2l0bDOcSsAg)
It’s odd now that population decline is in the public consciousness, I stop hearing about “people on welfare having children to get more benefits”.
Either that wasn’t the case, or that clearly the answer is more welfare.
Nobody can afford anything, especially kids. American leaders and politicians did this to themselves.
I need a thorough explanation, preferably with quotes from Trotsky, of why a natural population decline in China in 2025 of almost 3.5 million people and a fall in the fertility rate to 0.93 is good, or at least not a big deal, while the US “flirting” with a possible population decline is a real nightmare.
I think the idea of bringing a child into this world is continuing to be less and less attractive as we’re increasingly unable to mitigate the transfer of wealth to the few and the population is a plurality if not majority of individuals with little or no morals either via lack of education or hate.
Each day is further confirmation.
The unpopular truth is that this is a worldwide trend. Contrary to the popular victimhood speaking points, people just don’t want to have as many kids anymore. Poor people have the most. The wealthy aren’t having more.
Its time to accept the reality.
Don’t worry, we’ll figure out a way to redefine or recalculate it to look good like we have with every other important declining metric of the past fifty years.
Is this really a problem when the governments gone out of its way to lower fertility rates and keep us all sick and dying.
Fuck having kids. Why would I bring a child into this dying, shithole world?
This population decline is global. Stop using population import as a solution.
Having kids incurs a high opportunity cost. My wife and I decided not to have kids. We are happy with our decision. We are afforded more flexibility and freedom for ourselves. If someone wants to have kids, more power to them, but I can see how having them would be a headache even with our good income.
The cost of raising a kid is expensive, the amount of time and resources spent on raising a kid is a lot as well. It makes sense why people don’t want them, especially women as they become more educated and establish careers. They are the ones automatically burdened with being the one to put career on hold etc because biologically they are the only one who can have a kid. Women are afforded more freedom in the modern world and they are taking advantage of it.
GOOD. The earth has an unsustainable amount of humans already, and fewer humans is good for the planet, full stop.
They pull up the ladder, making survival extremely difficult for their kids, then they’re surprised that their kids don’t want kids
At least the US can count on Amish and Mennonites to replenish its numbers whenever coastal states fail to reproduce.
Overall population decline/stabilization is necessary if we want to ensure our species survival on this planet. The resources are finite and we cannot continue to exploit them at the current rate.
We aren’t flirting with it. We’re already married and on our honeymoon.
The US hasn’t had a native birth replacement rate above parity, which is 2.1, since 2010. We’re at 1.6 now. The only reason our population wasn’t dropping like Japan and South Korea was immigration.
Last year, thanks to the…policies…of this administration, it is estimated that we had net negative immigration. That implies even legal immigrants are leaving. So in all probability, 2025 was the first year of our population decline (we’ll need to wait until the census to be sure, though).
That isn’t coming back either. Even if this regime leaves power, the damage is done. The conditions that have existed since 2010 have only become worse over time, and regardless of who gets into power, those conditions are not going to change. For the past 40 years, the wealthy and powerful have cut the legs out from under the population, and there is no hint that they intend to stop doing that.
Interesting times.
Hmmmm, I wonder why? Could immigration be down?
Your poor, your tired, your weak who also have the wherewithal to with all to be grateful for the opportunity to make a better life. Immigrants truly built this country. That is the country that we all loved. Let’s bring love back to immigrants and justice for all
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness!
“Trumps immigration crackdown”
Imagine hating your own country defending literal terrorism..
And not just that no one wants to come here now. Who would want to raise a child in this hellscape?
I don’t understand why everybody’s panicked about the population decline. The Earth has too many people I can’t support this many people. Population decline is a political problem not a real problem. If you based your countries retirement plan on always having more people working than being retired, that’s your fault.
Our society already has problems taking care of pregnant women, has a terrible foster, health, and childcare system, maternity/parental leave sucks it’s not safe to be LGBTQ…we have an issue with state sanctioned gun violence, wealth inequality, millennials struggle with buying a home, people are fearful that their SS will run out, college is too expensive. White Christian nationals running th country. (Then drill down to dissect intersectionality) yea I can see why we are “flirting” with population decline
Teen pregnancy is *way* down and that’s enough to move the needle.
*Teenage birth rates in the US reached historic lows in 2022. Teen pregnancy rates in the U.S. have reached historic lows, dropping to 13.5 births per 1,000 females aged 15-19 in 2022, marking a 78% decline from the 1991 peak.*
For all those who say a smaller population is a bad thing, i.e. due to the capital and social cost of a smaller group of young people supporting a very large older population, how does the advancement of AI and robotics fit in to your notion? I keep seeing concerns about massive job losses as both office work as well as some trades are/will be replaced by AI agents and AI-capable robotics.
If that happens, I would imagine large scale unemployment with basically no prospect of social advancement – those who own the assets having extreme wealth, but the majority of us who used to be workers being kicked out of productive work. This would basically be feudalism all over again, but without even the ability to be a peasant on the farm serving your lord.
If this ends up being the case, then for the middle/working class, and the poor, having kids today could mean their children would be essentially extraneous to society, unable to contribute or sustain themselves. Its frankly horrific to contemplate, especially if you presumably love your children!
Jesus, why is every country concerned with trying to reverse population decline? We don’t need to reverse it! We need to figure out a system that is compatible with it.
If we do reverse it then what? We’re gonna live on a planet with 10 billion people? 20 billion people? 100 billion? Everyone is going to live in gigantic apartment blocks? Mega cities covering continents? Nature is completely destroyed? Where does it end?
I’m not even that old and I remember things being much different when I was a kid. More bees and other insects. Like a hugely noticeable difference. Less traffic. More green spaces. Tourist areas that aren’t completely overrun.
Going to Machu Picchu feels like going to an attraction in Disney world now. Can you imagine what it was like to climb up there in the 70’s? The world is losing its adventure and wildness because there’s just too many of us.
Personally I hope that we figure out how to live with the decline and the population eventually stabilizes at a much lower level. Maybe 4 billion? That’s what it was in the 50’s. Maybe less? 1 billion?
There would straight up be more resources per person available. You think beach front property or lake front or ski resort or downtown property is expensive now? Just imagine if the population keeps going up like capitalists want.