Ole Miss’ uphill battle in rematch with Georgia
Experts break down why Georgia’s improved defense could shut down Ole Miss in the rematch.
The Georgia Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels play on Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, in a game on the College Football Playoff quarterfinal schedule.
Which team will win the Sugar Bowl game?
Check out these College Football Playoff picks and College Football Playoff predictions for the Sugar Bowl game, which can be seen at 6 p.m. MST on ESPN (stream with FUBO).
Georgia is a 7-point favorite over Ole Miss in College Football Playoff odds for the quarterfinal game, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Bulldogs are -275 on the moneyline, while the Rebels are +225. The over/under (point total) for the game is set at 56.5 points.
College Football Playoff picks: Ohio State vs Miami | Texas Tech vs Oregon | Indiana vs Alabama | Georgia vs Ole Miss | The Republic’s CFP predictions | Game odds | National championship odds
Watch Ole Miss vs Georgia on FUBO (free trial)
Jeremy Cluff writes: “On Oct. 18, Georgia beat Ole Miss, 43-35, in the Rebels’ lone loss of the season. Georgia outscored Ole Miss in the fourth quarter, 17-0. Georgia opened as a touchdown favorite in this game, but that doesn’t matter. Trinidad Chambliss and Mississippi will pull off the CFP upset.”
College Football Playoff schedule: Miami vs Ohio State | Oregon vs Texas Tech | Alabama vs Indiana | Ole Miss vs Georgia | TV channels
Bookies.com: Bet Georgia to cover vs Ole Miss
Bill Speros writes: “The Rebels demonstrated their ability to score – and keep scoring – without former coach Lane Kiffin Saturday. The unquestioned devotion of the Old Miss players toward new coach Pete Golding, meanwhile, makes that Kiffin situation a non-factor. But what remains an unshakable is Kirby Smart getting second crack at the Ole Miss offense. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss entered concussion protocol during Ole Miss’ over Tulane. His status is worth monitoring. The Bulldogs looked every bit the recent two-time defending champions in their 28-7 rout of Alabama in the SEC title game. They’re rested and ready to knock off another SEC foe in the postseason to begin 2026. These teams combined for 78 points in their first game. Therefore, this game boasts the highest total of these 4 games. However, the best defenses show up in games. And there’s none better in the big game than Georgia’s.”
Dimers.com: Georgia 29, Ole Miss 25
It writes: “After extensive simulations, our model gives Mississippi a win probability of 40%, while Georgia has a win probability of 60%.”
ESPN: Georgia has a 60.1% chance to defeat Ole Miss in Sugar Bowl
The site gives the Rebels a 60.1% shot at winning the College Football Playoff game over the Bulldogs on Jan. 1.
The site’s formula predicts that the Rebels will beat the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl CFP game.
Craig Meyer writes: “Ole Miss’ debut under Pete Golding was an impressive one, with few, if any, of the potential distractions from Lane Kiffin’s departure showing up on the field in a blowout of a good Tulane team. Georgia’s a different kind of challenge, though, with the Bulldogs playing as well as any team in the country, behind an improving offense and a characteristically stout defense.”
Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.
Support local journalism: Subscribe to azcentral.com today. Sign up for azcentral Preps Now. And be sure to subscribe to our daily sports newsletters so you don’t miss a thing.