The chart seems to suggest that even if EV sales sky-rocketed tomorrow, EV share of all vehicles registered and operating on U.S. roads would barely budge, as the average car stays on the road for over 12 years. At the current rate, 9 out of 10 cars on U.S. roads will still be gas-powered through much of the 2030s. (Data: [IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 via Our World in Data](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/global-ev-outlook-2025).)
dchung97 on
Well this makes me excited for the EV tax credits to come. Given I am skeptical that any other real form of change will occur.
FlyingSkyWizard on
Renewable energy is a buzzword you hear all day, but it doesn’t mean anything until you consider the opposite, gas is Disposable energy, every gallon used is used once and burned into smoke and another gallon of fuel needs to be dug out of the ground. Batteries can be used over and over again, solar cells produce new energy every day with the same materials, they don’t get used up.
I mean growth is gonna be stunted for a few years since the ev tax credits were allowed to expire.
Despite that, year over year growth has generally been good. And globally EVs make up 25% of new vehicles being sold. In ten years time 10% of vehicles on the road will be EV if you assume the sector doesn’t continue growing.
gophergun on
Excluding hybrids that aren’t plug-in seems a bit misleading. I get that the idea is that they need gas no matter what, but having a hybrid battery still makes a pretty significant impact in reducing fuel use and emissions.
Silvermane2 on
When you’re restricted to one car company due to anticompetitive govt policy, it’s no wonder why only 2% would be alt fuel
I_Enjoy_Beer on
Not too surprising. Most companies domestically still aren’t investing in developing multiple affordable EV options, and the one company that has, is run by a sack of shit, alienating most of the potential customer base.
I’d buy a dang EV but I’m not spending $60k on one. And I don’t want to buy a $30k one that looks ridiculous. Just make a regular looking car that happens to be an EV at an affordable price. Like the Chinese EVs that are killing it globally except in the US market because we won’t allow them in here for fear of them crushing our car companies.
AckerHerron on
It’s gone from 1.4% to 2.7% in the last two years.
That number will only go higher as older vehicles continue to leave the fleet.
wrenwood2018 on
The US made a terrible decision to go all in all full EV and not go more strongly for hybrids. You can make more hybrids for the same amount of rare earth elements that go into a full EV. Hybrids also have much broader appeal outside. Of course this data has the same sort of limited mentality as it excludes many hybrids. Perfect is the enemy of good.
ThatShadyJack on
Why not just call it petrol?
ShinePDX on
Because EV’s are overpriced and underperform.
blueavole on
My problem with EV is that it’s cold half the year, and very rural here. I regularly have to make trips of a couple hundred miles.
Last time I looked battery life doesn’t hold up in the cold temperatures.
And when the nearest town is 10, or 50 miles away? That’s scary when the temp is -15 F.
What is the mileage the car will go on a charge? WHO KNOWS! Last time I checked, i was told my worries were merely ‘range anxiety’.
Ok, but I’m not dropping 60,000$ on a car when you can’t tell me if it will make a 600 mile trip. Or it will make it sometimes, maybe.
Pyrhan on
I love Ourworldindata.
They have really useful visualizations of important things.
ihavenoidea12345678 on
We have had generally decreasing can prices at the national level for the last 5 years.
All while everything else we consume(like food!) has inflated big time.
Not surprised people are enjoying big cars when gasoline is not driving pain in your wallet.
If(when) we get another supply crunch, those prices will shoot up again. People will moan, and a few more will try more efficient cars and electrics.
IMO the cheap fuel in the USA is the key reason fora slow energy transition. When the economics get better(expensive gasoline), people will be snatching up EVs like crazy.
It will come.
Schrodinger_cube on
considering our communitys are more designed for cars than people, its not going to be a quick fix. Once building codes change and home chargers becomes the normal and citys start getting designed for walking and not driving so people don’t need super long commutes electric vehicles will get more popular. the evidence of the cost of ownership between gas and electric is also poorly understood and easy to manipulate range anxiety.
16 Comments
The chart seems to suggest that even if EV sales sky-rocketed tomorrow, EV share of all vehicles registered and operating on U.S. roads would barely budge, as the average car stays on the road for over 12 years. At the current rate, 9 out of 10 cars on U.S. roads will still be gas-powered through much of the 2030s. (Data: [IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 via Our World in Data](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/global-ev-outlook-2025).)
Well this makes me excited for the EV tax credits to come. Given I am skeptical that any other real form of change will occur.
Renewable energy is a buzzword you hear all day, but it doesn’t mean anything until you consider the opposite, gas is Disposable energy, every gallon used is used once and burned into smoke and another gallon of fuel needs to be dug out of the ground. Batteries can be used over and over again, solar cells produce new energy every day with the same materials, they don’t get used up.
Though true, the important figure is how much fuel is being burned overall. Despite the [total number of vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/) on the road increasing slightly during that time period, the [amount of fuel burned](https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-consumption-for-highway-vehicles-since-1992/) has actually declined a bit. No matter what kinds of drivetrains they use, vehicles are getting more efficient.
I mean growth is gonna be stunted for a few years since the ev tax credits were allowed to expire.
Despite that, year over year growth has generally been good. And globally EVs make up 25% of new vehicles being sold. In ten years time 10% of vehicles on the road will be EV if you assume the sector doesn’t continue growing.
Excluding hybrids that aren’t plug-in seems a bit misleading. I get that the idea is that they need gas no matter what, but having a hybrid battery still makes a pretty significant impact in reducing fuel use and emissions.
When you’re restricted to one car company due to anticompetitive govt policy, it’s no wonder why only 2% would be alt fuel
Not too surprising. Most companies domestically still aren’t investing in developing multiple affordable EV options, and the one company that has, is run by a sack of shit, alienating most of the potential customer base.
I’d buy a dang EV but I’m not spending $60k on one. And I don’t want to buy a $30k one that looks ridiculous. Just make a regular looking car that happens to be an EV at an affordable price. Like the Chinese EVs that are killing it globally except in the US market because we won’t allow them in here for fear of them crushing our car companies.
It’s gone from 1.4% to 2.7% in the last two years.
That number will only go higher as older vehicles continue to leave the fleet.
The US made a terrible decision to go all in all full EV and not go more strongly for hybrids. You can make more hybrids for the same amount of rare earth elements that go into a full EV. Hybrids also have much broader appeal outside. Of course this data has the same sort of limited mentality as it excludes many hybrids. Perfect is the enemy of good.
Why not just call it petrol?
Because EV’s are overpriced and underperform.
My problem with EV is that it’s cold half the year, and very rural here. I regularly have to make trips of a couple hundred miles.
Last time I looked battery life doesn’t hold up in the cold temperatures.
And when the nearest town is 10, or 50 miles away? That’s scary when the temp is -15 F.
What is the mileage the car will go on a charge? WHO KNOWS! Last time I checked, i was told my worries were merely ‘range anxiety’.
Ok, but I’m not dropping 60,000$ on a car when you can’t tell me if it will make a 600 mile trip. Or it will make it sometimes, maybe.
I love Ourworldindata.
They have really useful visualizations of important things.
We have had generally decreasing can prices at the national level for the last 5 years.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
All while everything else we consume(like food!) has inflated big time.
Not surprised people are enjoying big cars when gasoline is not driving pain in your wallet.
If(when) we get another supply crunch, those prices will shoot up again. People will moan, and a few more will try more efficient cars and electrics.
IMO the cheap fuel in the USA is the key reason fora slow energy transition. When the economics get better(expensive gasoline), people will be snatching up EVs like crazy.
It will come.
considering our communitys are more designed for cars than people, its not going to be a quick fix. Once building codes change and home chargers becomes the normal and citys start getting designed for walking and not driving so people don’t need super long commutes electric vehicles will get more popular. the evidence of the cost of ownership between gas and electric is also poorly understood and easy to manipulate range anxiety.