Australia is running 80,200 homes short of where it needs to be in order to be on track. (Source: Getty/Yahoo Finance)
Since Australia emerged from the pandemic – with more government stimulus thrown at the property market in the form of Scott Morrison’s HomeBuilder scheme – the housing market has remained front and centre in political debate. Looking at the underlying numbers it’s easy to see why.
According to the federal government’s National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC), since July 2023 alone, the nation’s homebuilding efforts have delivered a shortage of more than 140,000 homes. Despite the talk, we’re not getting the job done.
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In terms of housing deficit projections that go back further than NHSAC’s, such as those produced by AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver, the deficit is between 220,000 and 300,000 homes depending if you factor in estimates for changing household demographics.
Against the backdrop of rising housing prices and record low rental vacancy rates, the Albanese government has pledged to build 1.2 million new homes between July 2024 and June 2029.
Yahoo Finance/Tarric Brooker
So far the performance has come up well short, with 219,800 homes built out of a required 300,000 to be roughly at par at that stage to meet the required target.
Despite the fact that the nation is running 80,200 homes short of where it needs to be in order to be on track to reach the 1.2 million new home target by the June 2029 end date, the Albanese government continues to insist that the target is realistic.
While Australia as a nation is coming up well short of the required target and the needs of the growing population, the aggregate masks a highly varied performance between the different states and territories with some doing much better than others.
Over the last 12 months of data, there is a clear loser in terms of dwelling completions per 100,000 people, with New South Wales (NSW) coming in last with 494.5.
But it’s here that it’s worth exploring what this means through a more global lens.
The United States is sometimes seen as shining example of home building conditions, with regulations surrounding new builds and zoning in many states often significantly less complex and protracted than in Australia.
Yet despite NSW being Australia’s most poorly performing major state, in the last full calendar year of data it built 19.6 per cent more homes per capita than the United States and 1.7 per cent more homes than Canada.
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