ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Map and Update, January 9, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly blamed the United States on February 9 for the lack of progress in ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.
• Lavrov reiterated Russia’s demand for effective control over Ukraine’s post-war government and the size and composition of its military.
• Russian State Duma deputies are explicitly demanding that the United States concede to all Russian demands.
• Russian forces are likely falsely claiming that Ukrainian forces are conducting a “counteroffensive” near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border to rectify earlier false reports about alleged Russian advances in the area.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources recently reported that Russian forces have increased the range of their guided glide bombs to 200 kilometers, but this is not a new Russian innovation.
• India will reportedly dramatically decrease or halt its direct and indirect purchases of Russian oil.
• The United States seized another Russian shadow fleet oil tanker.
• Likely Belarusian balloons violated Polish airspace on the night of February 8 to 9.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast, near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Slovyansk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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