Estonia’s foreign intelligence service has warned that Russia is rapidly rebuilding its military as Europe strengthens its defences, though Moscow has no intention of attacking any NATO member this year or next.
Kaupo Rosin, head of the service, said Russia’s leadership is alarmed by European rearmament and sees the possibility of independent military action by Europe against Moscow within two to three years.
“Europe must invest in defence and internal security so that in the future Russia would conclude it has no chance against NATO countries,” Rosin told reporters.
The report highlighted that Russia’s ammunition production is expanding fast, allowing it to stockpile supplies for potential future conflicts while continuing operations in Ukraine.
Any hypothetical attack on Estonia would involve drones “on land, in the air and at sea, simultaneously across Estonia’s entire territory,” the intelligence service said.
Relations with the United States and China
The intelligence report also noted that Moscow continues to view the United States as its principal global adversary, despite appearances of willingness to cooperate in order to lift sanctions.
“This illusory thaw masks unchanged Russian aims: to marginalise the United States and NATO and reshape Europe’s security architecture according to Moscow’s vision,” the report said.
China is seen as a strategic partner, both for military technology cooperation and as an energy source if conflict around Taiwan triggers sanctions or maritime blockades. “Any concessions made to Russia would, in effect, also fuel China’s global ambitions,” the report added.
Strategic Implications for Europe
Estonian intelligence warns that Russia’s military rebuilding and stockpiling efforts are designed to delay NATO’s capabilities and ensure a long-term strategic advantage.
While no immediate NATO-targeted attack is expected, the report underscores growing European concerns over Moscow’s long-term ambitions and the need for continued defence investment.
(With inputs from Reuters)