On January 16, 2026, the self-proclaimed Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced a snap readiness check of the country’s armed forces. The inspection continues as mass mobilization notices are served to men in Belarus’s western regions. Simultaneously, in the Belarusian forests, concrete is already being poured for “Oreshnik” missile launch pads.
Minsk is no longer viewed as merely Moscow’s ally; it has been unofficially drafted into the “CRINK-B” club – the axis of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Belarus. LIGA.net looks behind the curtain of this militarization to uncover how Belarus is preparing for a major war against Europe and what is truly hidden in “Putin’s Belarusian garage.”
the “gray zone” of war. How Belarusian factories are working for the Kremlin today
According to BelPol, an association of former Belarusian security forces, more than 500 Belarusian enterprises are already involved in the fulfillment of the Russian defense order.
“We are talking about the production of artillery shells, rockets for Grad, microchips, optics for Russian tanks and control units for Satan or Avangard ballistic missiles,” a representative of the organization told LIGA.net.
The Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant (MZKT) is riveting chassis for Iskanders and S-400s day and night. What is happening is the complete dissolution of the Belarusian economy in the Russian meat grinder.
This process has been going on since 2022 – back then, Ukrainian intelligence reported that Belarusian industry was switching to servicing the Russian army. It was even buying pipes to be ready to organize an additional fuel pipeline to Ukraine so that Russian troops could have fuel.
How Belarusian enterprises organize the repair of Russian military equipment, LIGA.net analyzed the material in detail “Sanctions do not interfere. How Belarus repairs Russian aircraft – and what will happen for it”.
Against the backdrop of these processes, society is being militarized. The regime is rewriting the laws for the “great war”. Norms appear that are not needed in a peaceful country. For example, on labor remuneration during the rubble removal in martial law.
Military-patriotic education and camps are introduced for children, where they are taught to march and woken up by the explosions of stun grenades.
“Belarus is preparing for war,” BelPol states, “not necessarily against Ukraine. It could easily be the Baltic States.
Not so long ago, Europe believed that Russia would not threaten NATO until at least 2029. Now the deadline is is moving. Among other things, because of the timing of Belarusian construction.
The military-industrial complex enterprises that are currently being built from scratch will be able to reach full capacity around 2027-2029, according to former Belarusian security officials.
Most of the plants have a deadline for modernization – the first half of 2027,” says the source LIGA.netfor example, the ammunition plant, the Hull Works Plant, is due to start up in mid-2026 and produce 120,000 152 mm and 122 mm shells per year.
Moreover, Lukashenko’s regime is already trying to buy explosives from Iran, China, and Russia. Individual pieces of equipment are purchased in China or India. Very often, BelPol representatives have also blocked the supply of components bypassing sanctions from the United States, Japan, or Taiwan.
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Although 120,000 shells is not a very significant number in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, it is enough for 7-10 days of war, depending on the intensity of the fighting.
For comparison. According to the latest report of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, the production of ammunition in Russia has increased 17 times. In 2025, Russian factories produced more than 7 million shells, mortar shells, and rockets, compared to 4.5 million in 2024. In addition to its own production, Russia actively imports ammunition. Since 2023, it has received 5-7 million shells from Iran and North Korea.
All of these facilities are mirror images of Russian enterprises that are legitimate military targets deep inside Russia. In the “gray zone” called Belarus, they are out of Ukraine’s reach.
BelPol adds that for a year and a half, they traveled around Europe and the United States with closed briefings. At first, they were met with skepticism. Now the same figures are being repeated in the West.
CRINK-B Alliance. How Belarus renewed its aggressor status
At the Munich Security Conference, Belarus lost its status as an “accidental neighbor”. It is now a member of the CRINK-B club. This is a new term for the alliance of China, Russia, Iran, and the DPRK, where the letter “B” (Belarus) has become the logical conclusion of the axis of aggressors.
For now Svitlana Tikhanovska and her team convinced Western leaders on the sidelines of the conference that the threat was imminent, Volodymyr Zelenskyy introduced sanctions against Lukashenko. This is a signal that Kyiv and the Belarusian opposition are now acting together against a common enemy.
Tikhanovskaya emphasizes LIGA.nethe said that now Belarus is a territory completely absorbed by the Kremlin’s military machine, and Lukashenka and Putin are allies who use each other.
“Lukashenka has turned Belarus into a ‘gray zone’ where Russia can produce shells, repair equipment and deploy missiles that threaten the whole of Europe with impunity,” she lists. “The deployment of Oreshnik is proof that our land is being used as Putin’s nuclear site.”
Sources LIGA.net among the Belarusian oppositionists who helped people organize escapes from the regime, they say that they are afraid of what may happen in 2026-2027.
Those who have spent years building a network of contacts with border guards and safety routes for fugitives are now looking for options to move away from the border and its hybrid threats.
Former Lithuanian ambassador to Russia and experienced diplomat Eitvydas Bayarunas in a conversation with LIGA.net calls Belarus a “semi-state” where the economy is still “breathing,” but military integration is irreversible.
With Oreshnik, for example, this is not the issue, whether the this weapon is not about that, when exactly it will happen. It will be decided by Moscow. Lukashenko is only pretending to decide something, when in fact everything depends on the will of the Russian Federation,” explains Bayarunas.
The head of Ukraine’s mission to NATO, Alyona Getmanchuk, jokingly calls Belarus a “junior aggressor” that not only helps Russia with resources but has become a springboard for Russia’s most dangerous systems.
The topic of Belarus and new approaches to the Lukashenko regime is not often discussed at NATO headquarters. For those who want details, the mission explains: Belarus continues to be involved in Russia’s military efforts. In particular, Russia has changed the tactics of using attack drones – they are entering Ukraine along the Belarusian border. The NATO Secretary General heard about this directly from the Ukrainian military during his visit to Chernihiv region three weeks ago.
However, he himself Mark Rutte and the Alliance’s press service publicly ignore questions about Belarus, the deployment of the Oreshnik, and drone launches. In a conversation with LIGA.net Rütte avoided the topic of Belarus with phrases about increasing support for Ukraine, while press officers said “NATO will defend every inch of its territory.”
Factors influencing the situation and possible scenarios
While NATO headquarters is trying to choose careful words, the Baltic states are not holding back in their assessments.
Vytautas Leskevicius, Director of the Security Policy Department of the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, explains LIGA.netthe possible appearance of Oreshnik and nuclear weapons in Belarus is the final stage of Minsk’s takeover by Moscow. “He simply provided the territory for Putin’s nuclear rattling,” explains Leskevicius, who served as his country’s permanent representative to NATO until 2020.
Former head of Finnish military intelligence and now MEP Pekka Tovere confirms LIGA.netthe 2027-2029 period as the point of highest tension is quite realistic. Not because Russia will become stronger, but because Europe will cease to be weak.
“We see a narrow window of opportunity that is closing for Putin. Every day, European NATO countries are getting stronger, and our defense industry is building muscle,” he explains. “In the long run, Russia will not be able to match the power of Europe, so they need to act in the coming years before it’s too late.
Toveri identifies three critical factors that make the late 2020s a “red zone.”
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The Trump factor. The Kremlin may try to strike while a president whose commitment to Article 5 is questionable is in the White House, hoping for a weak US response.
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The China factor. Beijing could use Putin as a tool to distract NATO and the United States during a possible attack on Taiwan.
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The “Peanut” factor. Although militarily this system does not change the balance of power (because it is few in number and becomes an easy target for NATO aircraft due to its proximity to the border), strategically it is a slap in the face to all de-escalation agreements.
NATO must clearly show that it is ready to destroy these launchers, Toveri is convinced. And in parallel, it should start developing its own intermediate-range nuclear capabilities.
NATO is not just watching Russia and Belarus – the Alliance is undergoing its most ambitious defense upgrade in decades. The defense plan rests on three pillars:
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NATO will no longer wait for an attack to start moving forces. The best units of the allies are already deployed on the eastern flank, literally close to the border, to fight back from the first second.
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The alliance relies on being able to shoot down anything that flies on approach (air defense) and being able to strike back over long distances.
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NATO is investing heavily in drones and state-of-the-art intelligence. All the experience of the great war in Ukraine is now being integrated into the Alliance’s systems: from seeing every movement of the enemy through satellites to how swarms of drones work. Experience of the Hedgehog-2025 exercise has shown that such integration needs to be accelerated many times over.
“This ensures that NATO commanders have a comprehensive threat picture, backed by effective plans and capabilities ready to defend against any invasion of Alliance territory,” Leskevicius said.
Interlocutors LIGA.net see several scenarios for further developments.
- Russia will continue its hybrid war against NATO. Russia is already attacking the Alliance, the Alliance reminds LIGA.net aurimas Navis, a former Lithuanian Special Forces officer and defense analyst. Now it is doing this in a way that will not get an Article 5 response. Arson, sabotage on European railways, drones over critical facilities – this is the real war that the West is afraid to call by its name.
In this scenario, Oreshnik in Belarus is more of a psychological weapon than a military factor. “Moscow is deploying it in Belarus not so much for NATO as for Lukashenko himself. This is a signal to his regime: you and Putin’s gang are now in the same boat, and there is no way out,” Navis said in a commentary to LIGA.net.
- Russia decides on a direct conflict and attacks the Suwalki Isthmus. If the US and allies force it to surrender, Russia will have a free hand and a huge army trained to kill, Navis says. Then, using its Trojan horses like Orban and Fico, it could split the unity within NATO and slow down the Alliance’s response to such an invasion.
- Russia attacks in the Far North. In this scenario, Belarus will remain a strategic “garage” that can be filled with Russian assets at any time, says LIGA.net ondrej Dietrich, Senior Analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).
Belarus has turned into a “balcony” for Russian influence, but its role in the great war may be overestimated, he said: “We see a ‘dotted’ deployment – weapons appear there temporarily. “Oreshnik in Belarus is part of psychological warfare, not a game changer,” says Dietrich. “Russia will need much more time to rebuild its forces than until 2027 to seriously attack NATO in the Baltic.
Russia almost certainly views Belarusian territory and its military resources as strategically important for exerting military pressure on NATO’s eastern flank, the authors conclude LIGA.net in the Latvian intelligence community. They predict that Belarus’ role in Russia’s military and strategic planning is likely to grow over the next two years, given that Russia continues to pursue a confrontational approach to the West.
“However, Russia’s ability to expand its military presence in Belarus in the short term – up to 2 years – will depend on the further course of the war in Ukraine,” the intelligence representative summarizes.
This means that Ukraine’s importance for European security and its role as a pan-European shield will only increase in the next two years.