Moody’s expects Azerbaijan’s real GDP growth to reach 2.5–3% in 2026-2027, up from an estimated 1.5% in 2025.
The forecast compares with economic growth of 4.1% in 2024, reflecting a period of moderation followed by a gradual recovery, News.Az reports, citing Moody’s.
Moody’s said the acceleration will be primarily driven by the stable expansion of the non-oil sector, which accounts for a significant share of banking activity in Azerbaijan.
The agency noted that sustained growth in non-oil industries is expected to support credit expansion, help preserve asset quality, and maintain profitability across the banking sector over the medium term.
Moody’s assessment suggests that Azerbaijan’s economic resilience will increasingly depend on diversification away from hydrocarbons, with the banking system playing a key role in financing that transition.