A Look At Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) Valuation After US$600m Exchangeable Note Conversion And Recent Momentum

Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) is back in focus after completing US$600 million in exchangeable senior note conversions into cash and ordinary shares, a capital structure move that arrives alongside upbeat third party commentary on its recent operating performance.

See our latest analysis for Seagate Technology Holdings.

The recent US$600 million exchangeable note conversion comes against a backdrop of strong share price momentum, with a 30-day share price return of 17.74% and a 90-day share price return of 54.93%. The 1-year total shareholder return is very large, pointing to powerful longer term compounding even as shorter term sentiment remains mixed.

If Seagate’s move has you thinking more broadly about storage and compute infrastructure, it could be worth looking at our list of 33 AI infrastructure stocks identified by the Simply Wall St screener as another way to spot potential opportunities in related areas.

With Seagate shares up sharply and trading at a reported intrinsic discount of about 29%, investors are left with a simple question: is there still mispricing here, or has the market already baked in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 24.7% Overvalued

Against Seagate’s last close of $421.85, the most widely followed narrative puts fair value at $338.20, setting up a clear valuation gap for investors to weigh.

Seagate Technology (STX) has transformed itself from a legacy hardware maker into a critical AI infrastructure darling, with its stock price hitting $411 in February 2026. This 330% climb over the past year has been fueled by the successful commercialization of Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue growth, margin profile and future profit multiple underpin that $338.20 fair value, even with this kind of share price move already in place? The narrative walks through a detailed cash flow forecast and a terminal value view that together set that figure. If you want to see which assumptions carry the most weight in that model, the full story lays them out clearly.

Result: Fair Value of $338.20 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, that story could change quickly if HAMR manufacturing runs into yield or supply issues, or if cloud customers slow large capacity upgrade plans.

Find out about the key risks to this Seagate Technology Holdings narrative.

Another Angle On Value

That $338.20 user fair value puts Seagate in the overvalued camp, but our DCF model tells a different story. On that view, STX at $396.02 is trading below an estimated future cash flow value of $596.76, which points to a discount instead. Which narrative do you think fits the risk you are willing to take?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

STX Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Next Steps

With mixed signals on value and plenty of moving parts, it makes sense to look at the underlying data yourself and decide quickly where you stand. To help frame both sides, you can review the company’s 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs and consider how that balance of risks and rewards fits your own view.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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