PEORIA (25News Now) – After four years, the war still rages between Russia and Ukraine with no clear end in sight, and a local expert is weighing in on how far both countries have come.
Despite multiple failed attempts at peace negotiations, one foreign affairs specialist says that without concrete security measures for Ukraine and meaningful efforts from Russia, the fighting will unlikely some to an end.
The Kremlin launched a full out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with the assumption that the takeover would only take a few days. Moscow assumed they could deceive Ukrainian forces to move away from Kyiv and then rapidly seizing the capital.
Instead, it has become one of the longest land wars in Europe.
Angela Weck, a Russian history expert and the executive director at the Peoria Area World Affairs Council, said that Russia currently controls about 19% of Ukraine.
“Russia would like to control all the territory it controls and then some, and then it also wants to guarantee that Ukraine does not have any of the kinds of the security agreements that Ukraine is demanding in exchange,” said Weck.
Ukraine would be willing to concede territory, Weck said, but only if it receives guarantees to protect itself from another possible Russia strike in the future.
This comes after years of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would never cede land to Russia, but peace negotiations between the two countries have consistently failed due to land and security guarantees.
“If the world, especially the United States, is not willing to offer those on the ground security deals, Ukraine understands that it has to keep fighting for its very existence,” Weck continued.
According to the UN International Organization for Migration, the war between Russia and Ukraine has caused 3.7 million people to continue being displaced in Ukraine, while around 6.9 million have sought refuge in Europe and beyond.
In Russia, an estimated n 820,000 to 920,000 people have left the country since the beginning of the war in 2022.
The war has also caused unprecedented casualties, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank putting the death toll at nearly 1.2 million for Russian battlefield casualties and between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties for Ukraine over the same time period.
“Four years later, they are no closer to victory in Ukraine than they were during that first week, and the territorial advances they made during that first year have largely been pushed back by the Ukrainians,” said Weck.
Despite Ukraine’s smaller population and military, Weck said the stalemate signals that future peace talks will depend heavily on security guarantees, not just land concessions.
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