We are not facing a cycle of euphoria, nor a scenario of defensive retraction. We are at a stage where the economy, real estate, energy, and institutional capital are beginning to align structurally. The international context remains demanding, with moderate global growth, persistent geopolitical tensions, and reconfigured supply chains. And internally, we now face an additional test of our collective capacity: the recent severe storms that hit the country and devastated one of the most productive regions of the national territory. The destruction of infrastructures, production units and agricultural areas will have a relevant economic impact and will require a significant financial effort from the State Budget in the coming years. Reconstruction will not be immediate, nor cheap. It will be a prolonged resilience process.
Still, it is precisely here that maturity reveals itself. Portugal enters this difficult cycle with an incomparably more robust macroeconomic base than in previous crises. Consistent economic growth, stabilised inflation, historically low unemployment, and a public debt on a downward trajectory create room for action. The gradual sovereign rating upgrades and fiscal consolidation of recent years were not mere accounting exercises; they were credibility-building. And this credibility is today a decisive asset to face unexpected shocks like this. We have never been so well prepared financially to absorb a challenge of this dimension, even knowing that the coming years will require discipline, prioritisation, and strategic vision in the application of public resources.
But the real turning point is not only in the conjunctural response to the catastrophe. It lies in the structural transformation of the country’s economic and real estate rationale. For decades, real estate was seen as a consequence of growth. Today, it has become a condition for this growth. Without affordable housing, there is no labour mobility. Without quality offices, there is no talent retention. Without efficient logistics, there is no industrial competitiveness. And, increasingly evidently, without resilient infrastructure, there is no productive continuity in the face of extreme weather events. The territory has become economic infrastructure, and resilience has become an integral part of its value.
Portugal has a strategic advantage here that should not be underestimated. The high incorporation of renewable energies, especially solar and wind, positions the country at a relevant competitive level in the European context. At a time when energy availability is a decisive criterion in the location of intensive investment, this variable gains structural weight. Energy is no longer just an operating cost and has become a determining factor in the decision to invest in real estate and industry. At the same time, the need for reconstruction after storms reinforces the urgency for more robust infrastructure, smarter grids, and more resilient land planning. Investing in recovery cannot be just replacing what existed. It has to be to build back better.
At the same time, we face the structural challenge of housing. Demand remains resilient, but supply remains limited. New construction below real needs, high costs and slow licensing create an imbalance that impacts economic competitiveness and social cohesion. If we want to attract talent, fix population and sustain growth, we have to solve this variable. The industrialisation of construction, administrative simplification and the consolidation of institutional leasing can represent real structural change, especially if we integrate energy efficiency and climate resilience criteria into new projects.
We are, therefore, facing a crossroads that combines challenge and opportunity. Recent storms remind us that climate risk is no longer a future projection; it is a present reality. But they also demonstrate that institutional preparedness, budgetary discipline, and the soundness of the financial system make a difference. We can continue to grow incrementally, reacting to events, or we can assume a clear strategic positioning as a resilient, energy-competitive country that is territorially prepared for the climate challenges of the coming decades.
In my reading, the future will be defined by those who know how to integrate three dimensions: capital, energy, and resilience. Real estate is no longer just a financial asset and has become a strategic instrument for reconstruction, adaptation, and sustainable growth. In a world that grows less, competes more, and faces recurrent climate shocks, those who align territory, sustainability and financial credibility ensure structural advantage. And, despite the harshness of the current moment, I believe that Portugal has never been so well prepared to face this long-term challenge with responsibility and vision.