Offensive on Kyiv
The threat of a renewed Russian offensive on Kyiv from Belarus remains, though analysts assess it as low.
This was stated by former officer of the Security Service of Ukraine, Ivan Stupak in an interview with Glavred.
According to Stupak, the chance that Russia will attempt to attack Kyiv from the north again is small, but it should not be completely ruled out. The current war has demonstrated that the Ukrainian army must be ready for any scenario.
«That option is possible. The current war has shown that there is no reason to rule out any scenario, even if its likelihood is less than 5–10%. So a second Russian attempt to advance on Kyiv is unlikely, but possible, ” Stupak said.
He reminded that the entire border with Belarus is currently mined, tightly blocked, and equipped with modern engineering fortifications.
«I want to believe that this is the case, and that there aren’t some 20 meters left that are intentionally or accidentally unmined, where Russian troops could pass, ” Stupak said.
He also stressed that preparing such a large-scale offensive without being detected by Ukrainian intelligence will not be possible. Any buildup of troops and the creation of a multi-thousand-strong formation near the border will be noticed in advance, giving the Ukrainian armed forces time to react.
The expert separately pointed to the consequences Belarus would face if it assists in a new Russian attack. Should the occupiers again attempt to use its territory as a launchpad for an assault on Kyiv, Ukraine would have full moral and military justification to respond.
«Let Lukashenko not take offense — we would be able to hit any targets on Belarusian territory that we consider necessary: airfields, oil refineries, and so forth” Stupak concluded.