Anyone who looked at the sky over large swathes of France back in December may have noticed some unusual low-flying aircraft.
About four times a year the French flex their nuclear muscles in exercises that demonstrate how, using advanced Rafale B fighter-bombers, they would perform a nuclear strike on an enemy.
The classified exercises include about 40 aircraft, some of which refuel over Brittany before flying to the Mediterranean then returning low and fast over mainland France to simulate a nuclear bombing run. It is known as Operation Poker.
President Macron is set to launch a high-stakes gamble with the military war games after allowing British observers to witness the exercises for the first time as part of bilateral moves by Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to “deepen their nuclear co-operation and co-ordination”.
In a speech on Monday, he will explain how he might extend the protections afforded by France’s nuclear umbrella, including almost 300 warheads, to other European allies such as Germany, Poland or Sweden.
With growing concerns across Europe about President Trump’s willingness to defend the continent against a rising Russian threat, Macron is expected to highlight French firepower in an increasingly unstable world. The site chosen for his speech is symbolic of French nuclear prowess: the Île Longue Atlantic peninsula is where its four nuclear-armed submarines are based.
A nuclear submarine at the naval base in Île Longue
FRED TANNEAU/GETTY IMAGES
Leaders of France’s allies are all ears. They have sheltered under the American nuclear deterrent for decades and are keen to hear more about Macron’s proposals for France’s nuclear arsenal to play a bigger role in the continent’s security. “It seems very risky to rely on American protection,” Rasmus Jarlov, the chairman of the Danish parliament’s defence committee, said.
He and others hope Macron will go further than his customary rhetoric and make concrete commitments. Macron has suggested talks with European partners and even offered to “associate” them in French nuclear exercises.
Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, has had “initial talks” on the issue. He has raised the idea of German forces operating with French and British nuclear weapons, marking a shift from Berlin’s former, more cautious stance. Merz has publicly theorised about the possible use of German aircraft to carry French nuclear weapons.
Sir Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz and Macron during the Munich Security Conference in February
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In any scenario, France will insist on the Élysée retaining sole power to press the nuclear button. However, German officials suggested that Berlin could become reluctant in the future to help fund an arsenal under French control.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and President Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons have highlighted the importance of deterrence for European countries and unity in its application.
Trump’s equivocal and sometimes hostile stance on supporting Ukraine and his threats to seize Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, have heightened concerns about the fragility of the transatlantic alliance.
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“Confidence in the United States’ willingness to protect Europe has plummeted so France and the UK must prepare option B for the worst-case scenario,” Guillaume Garnier, a defence specialist at the French Institute of International Relations, said.
French Rafale fighter jets, front, during drills simulating a nuclear bombing run last year
ALAIN JOCARD/GETTY IMAGES
“Allowing British observers at France’s latest nuclear exercise was a sign of enormous confidence. France has not shared this level of information on its nuclear deterrent with the Americans. This co-operation between the UK and France could possibly serve as a basis for wider European co-operation.”
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With only 14 months left in power, however, the French president is in a race against the clock to change nuclear strategy in ways that Marine Le Pen’s populist National Rally would find difficult to unwind.
Her party, which was close to Putin before the Ukraine war, appears to be on the threshold of power. Opinion polls suggest that France’s next president is likely to be Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella, or Le Pen herself if an appeal court quashes her disqualification over a corruption conviction.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella
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Le Pen and Bardella oppose Macron’s nuclear talks with European allies and propose to withdraw France from Nato’s integrated military command. “The very real prospect of a National Rally win next year creates a credibility problem for whatever Macron offers,” a senior European diplomat said.
There are also concerns about the possibility of nuclear proliferation if some European countries decide they need their own deterrent. Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s president, has already suggested that his country should start developing nuclear defences.
Étienne Marcuz, a French nuclear defence expert at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, said: “Germany is now spending more than Britain or France on defence and this could cause tensions in the future if Berlin, for example, were to demand its own nuclear capability.”