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    [OC] Iran is firing munitions at military targets, but they have less accuracy than the munitions used in the carpet bombing of Europe during WW2.
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    [OC] Iran is firing munitions at military targets, but they have less accuracy than the munitions used in the carpet bombing of Europe during WW2.


    Hello folks, in a past life I used to work on missile guidance computers so I thought I'd put some of that knowledge to work in a simplified visualization to explain why we're seeing so much civilian infrastructure being hit by Iranian ballistic missile attacks. The bottom line is that Iran's munitions are not particularly accurate.

    The visualization is an interactive single-page HTML site, and I'm trying to figure out somewhere to get it hosted. Shown here is the center of the US 5th Fleet HQ at NSA Bahrain.

    Posted by TheForsaken69

    View 14 Comments

    14 Comments

    1. Icouldusesomerock on

      Assuming you work for Iranian intelligence and you know for a fact what they’re targeting then I suppose so

    3. TheForsaken69 on

      **Sources**

      **Iranian Missile CEP Data:**

      – CSIS Missile Threat Project — [Shahab-3](https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/shahab-3/), [Qiam-1](https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/qiam-1/), [Emad](https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/emad/)
      – IISS, *The Military Balance 2024* — Iranian ballistic missile accuracy estimates
      – Congressional Research Service, [“Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs”](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/IF10938.pdf) — CEP ranges for Shahab-series variants
      – The 850 m “mixed volley average” is a composite estimate reflecting operational accuracy of mixed Shahab-3/Qiam volleys, as assessed in post-strike analyses of the January 2020 Al Asad attack and April 2024 strikes

      **Historical Comparison Data:**

      – German V-2 (17,000 m CEP): Neufeld, Michael J., *The Rocket and the Reich* (1995). Operational CEP against London 1944–45 was approximately 17 km, consistent with [V-2 data from the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/missile-surface-surface-v-2-a-4/nasm_A19600342000)
      – B-17 Norden Bombsight (370 m CEP): *United States Strategic Bombing Survey, Summary Report (European War)* (1945). Eighth Air Force 1943 operational bombing accuracy averaged ~1,200 ft circular error; see also Werrell, Kenneth P., *Blankets of Fire* (1996) and [Air Force Historical Studies Office analyses](https://www.afhistory.af.mil/)

      **Erbil 2024 Strike:**

      – [“Iran launches missiles at Iraq’s Erbil in attack on ‘spy headquarters'”](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/explosions-heard-erbil-iraqi-kurdistan-region-reuters-witness-2024-01-15/) — Reuters, January 15, 2024

      **Base Locations:**

      – Coordinates derived from publicly available satellite imagery via [OpenStreetMap](https://www.openstreetmap.org/) and [Esri World Imagery](https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=10df2279f9684e4a9f6a7f08febac2a9)

      **Civilian Infrastructure (Joint Base Andrews):**

      – All 23 civilian sites verified via [Google Places API](https://developers.google.com/maps/documentation/places/web-service) with address-level confirmation

      **Civilian Infrastructure (Middle East Bases):**

      – Approximate locations sourced from [OpenStreetMap](https://www.openstreetmap.org/) and publicly available mapping data. Includes verified landmarks: Al Fateh Grand Mosque (Bahrain), Cathedral of St. Joseph Ankawa (Erbil), Azraq Wetland Reserve ([Ramsar Convention listing](https://rsis.ramsar.org/ris/1109)), Azraq Refugee Camp ([UNHCR Jordan](https://www.unhcr.org/jo/azraq-camp))

      **What is CEP?:**

      – [“Circular Error Probable”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable) — standard NATO measure; 50% of munitions land within the CEP radius, the other 50% land *outside*, potentially much farther

    4. Jaasim99 on

      I thought the debris collateral was from the defenders shooting down the incoming drones/missiles?

    5. axloo7 on

      A B 17 is what 10k fertig from it’s target when it drops.

      Iran is a fair bit with away than that.

    6. 150c_vapour on

      Are you sure? Some are very accurate.

      Like the US base personal that moved to the hotels to use the people there as human shields, they were hit with accurate fire.

    9. Dissident_is_here on

      All this kinda goes to shit when you realize they’re targeting ports, airports, and hotels housing US troops

    10. Azitzin on

      I mean one side have worldwide array of satellites to guide everything, and air superiority. The other must try to hit something with all AA missles, radio and other interference against them? Did i get it right?

    12. agate_ on

      This isn’t bug it’s a feature. Iran gets to say they’re aiming at legitimate military targets, and if you’re upset about your civilians getting killed, maybe you should rethink letting the Americans build bases in your tiny country.

    13. denzik on

      Does this map include impact from missiles that were shot down? Nothing has overshot the target into the water, just fallen short.

    14. Willyboycanada on

      You need volume…. Iran has volume, as history has show
      Shown low tech to bloody American forces makes them give up…. you don’t beat the u.s just make it politically toxic to continue