What economic and political problems can further escalation around Iran create for Armenia? What challenges can Armenia face if the scale of the war increases and its intensity increases? These and other questions in the interview News.am historian and political scientist Armen Ayvazyan answered.
“There are numerous and different problems. Economic problems. Gas supplies from Iran may stop, the road may be blocked, hundreds of thousands of refugees may enter Armenia,” Ayvazyan said.
According to him, against the background of the confrontation between the United States and Iranian risks may also affect the territory of Armenia.
“Because of these actions between the United States and Iran, it is possible that some events may occur on our territory,” he said.
The political scientist believes that in case of escalation, Azerbaijan and Turkey may also become more active.
“Azerbaijan and Turkey can become more active. Azerbaijan’s Western patrons may force it to take some action against Iran. In response, Iran may strike at Azerbaijan…
Azerbaijan, sensing that Iran has weakened — or if it seems to it that Iran has weakened — may try to invade Armenia, Syunik (the southern region of Armenia, historical term Zangezur — ed.), because Syunik was actually held by Iran for us,” Ayvazyan said.
He also criticized the thesis that Syunik’s security was provided by the West.
“The thesis that Syunik saved the West is ridiculous, because Syunik did not save the West. The United States wants to subject the territory of Syunik to annexation for 99 years. And 99 years means virtually forever,” the political scientist said.
According to Ayvazyan, if the United States really wanted to prevent a threat to the region, they could directly warn Baku and Ankara.
“If the United States really wanted to save Syunik, they wouldn’t say, ‘Give me this territory for 99 years.’ They would simply tell Azerbaijan and Turkey: “Don’t you dare invade Armenia.” And that’s it. But instead it says: “Give this territory for 99 years. You will have no rights here, the exclusive rights will belong to me: construction, security, accommodation of personnel.“ And what does that mean?” he says.
The political scientist also expressed concerns about the possible deployment of “security personnel” in the region.
“If they are deployed there with the current relations with Iran, isn’t it obvious that one day there may be a clash between them? That a war could start?” — said Ayvazyan.
He also sharply criticized the actions of the current Armenian authorities.
“That is, our government turned out to be so incompetent, showed such weakness — although this is not even weakness, it simply fulfilled the requirements dictated to it — that brought the country to such a state when the territory of Armenia is already being sold.
To transfer it for 99 years means selling your own territory, putting it up for sale. You see, selling this territory to a superpower means the end,” Ayvazyan said.
“Let’s see how this war ends. And let’s see what happens after that: will the current government fall in In the United States, Trump — which is quite likely — or Iran will weaken so much that Azerbaijanis will be able to become more active here and will act even more brazenly,” the political scientist concluded.