The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at Wyoming on Tuesday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (19-10, 11-7 MW) at Wyoming (16-13, 7-11)
When: Tuesday, 7 p.m.
Where: Arena-Auditorium (11,612 capacity)
TV/Radio: Nevada Sports Net/95.5 FM
Online: NevadaSportsNet.com
Betting line: Pick’em; total of 142.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Stars play like stars: Nevada’s top-three scorers – Corey Camper Jr., Elijah Price and Tayshawn Comer – combined for just 30 points on 6-of-29 shooting in Saturday’s overtime loss to UNLV. Not many MW schools are going to win games when their three best players are that inefficient. That trio went bonkers in the first game against Wyoming, tallying 61 points on 21-of-28 shooting in a 92-83 win in Reno in January. Those are obviously vastly different results. Wyoming played pretty good defense in non-league games but has not since MW play began. The Cowboys rank 10th in effective field-goal defense and 11th in defensive free throw rate among 12 teams in league action. Nevada’s top trio should have a bounce back game, and the Wolf Pack will need that to snap its five-game road losing streak.
2. Stop the slashing drives: If there’s one MW team you don’t mind taking 3-pointers, it’s Wyoming, which is shooting a league-worse 30.7 percent from deep in MW play. The Cowboys, however, don’t make taking threes, averaging a league-most 26.2 per game in MW games. Wyoming basically ignores the mid-range game (which is actually where it’s been most effective) in favor of a slash-and-pass system aimed at getting shots at the hoop and open threes. Nevada can’t completely ignore defending the 3-point line against a team that attempts this many shots from distance. But the first goal is stopping Wyoming’s slashing drives after the Cowboys had one of their best offensive games of the MW season at Nevada – 52 percent overall, 8-of-18 from three, 31 free throw attempts en route to 83 points.
3. Some pep in the step: Nevada’s tempo has slowed down as the season has gone on, with the Wolf Pack ranking 282nd in adjusted pace, which is an improvement over last year’s ranking of 340 but not exactly what the team envisioned when the season started. There have been some games where Nevada has expertly pushed the pace after opponent misses. That happened in the first game against Wyoming when the Wolf Pack had 15 fastbreak points. In Nevada’s MW wins, the Wolf Pack is averaging 14 fastbreak points per game; in the team’s MW losses, that figure is nine fastbreak points per game. And given how many close contests Nevada has played in league, that five-point margin is big. Playing with pace on offense also leads to a more energized defensive effort, so establishing that tempo early on will be important after Nevada lost an emotionally draining overtime game three days ago.
Prediction
Nevada 77, Wyoming 72: The intangibles in this game favor Wyoming, which has beaten Nevada six straight times in Laramie and is 13-4 at home to Nevada’s 3-6 road record in MW play, including five straight losses. The Wolf Pack also flew home after Saturday’s UNLV game before hitting the road 36 hours later for Wyoming, which is a lot of travel for a squad that just played an overtime affair. Additionally, Wyoming coach Sundance Wicks publicly tore into his team for a lack of effort in Saturday’s 66-62 win over Air Force. That marks the second straight game Nevada has played an opponent that got ripped by their coach days early. That seemed to spark UNLV to a victory over the Wolf Pack on Saturday. But the hunch here is Nevada finds a way to tame its Laramie demons, as Wyoming is 1-12 in Quad 1 or 2 games. Season record: 19-10
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.