The Petrostates were already facing the prospect of fossil fuels' decline before the 2026 war started; now, events may accelerate fossil fuels' decline. Iran may have many times more cheap drones and missiles than the expensive systems the US, Israel & Gulf states need to neutralize them. At $20-50k each, it can build 5,000 or so per $100 million and has been preparing for years. Soon, when those expensive defences run out, 20% of the world's fossil fuel production may be at Iran's mercy and defenceless from its drones and missiles.
The rest of the world may be forced to adapt to a world of permanent high oil & LNG prices. Unlike the last time this happened in the 1970s, this time there is an alternative. Renewables, batteries, and EVs were already cheaper before the 2026 Middle East War; they will be vastly cheaper as it goes on. Iran may have enough cheap missiles to last months, or possibly years. By the time they run out, the Gulf states may find the rest of the world has adapted away from needing them so much.
The Future of Petrostates After Oil.
byu/lughnasadh inFuturology
6 Comments
Also, the United States is selling the “old solutions” or more fossil fuels, high end (and expensive) defense systems and now with Trump, fealty to the United States in all things. In an ironic twist, it is China, with low cost solar and battery storage, that is now selling countries independence, self determination, freedom from bondage to the Petrostates. Just like countries saw that atomic weapons brought security to North Korea and Pakistan, they are seeing that locally produced renewable electricity provides freedom from oil wars.
Funny timing with how the trump administration has been pushing the US back into an oil dependency when Biden had laid a path into renewables. Kinda handy to have other options but we instead elected to shoot ourselves in the foot yet again
Unlike Russia, the US is actually half-competent. Iran’s drones are a nuisance, the Trump regime doesn’t care about the damage they inflict or the lives lost. The US and Israel aren’t waging war like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Iran can’t defend (effectively) like Ukraine.
I think unthinkable brutality will be unleashed on Iran and their petro-wealth under control before the world makes such a shift.
When the price of oil increases, companies drill more wells and it eventually comes back down.
Suck is that to create EV battery. You still need oil @-@. Cause oil has many byproducts that is essential in industry. Not counting petro/oil for mining machines
If every passenger car was an EV, the military would still use JP5/kerosene, and also the plastics industry would use a variety of petro-feedstocks.
Lots of fertilizers use ammonia as a nitrogen source, and the majority of ammonia is made from natural gas.
I could go on, but the petro-states will still be in business, but at a lower volume of sales.