They know 1 or 2 tankers hit through the US protection it all collapses. Oil goes up to 100+$ a barrel minimum. Global economy implodes as the world bids to get what fuel it can.
US is then required to deploy troops to Iran. 10s of thousand US troops in Iran for years.
Or the sane play is US tucks its tail between its legs and leaves to save the world economy. It trump so we know the answer.
Inner-Cobbler-2432 on
That chokepoint would be a complete deathtrap. Every Iran’s rocket and their mother is aiming there in hope the US navy shows up.
Artistic_Concern_33 on
It’s crazy that a solution has not been found since the 80s in regards to Iran blockading the strait of Hormuz, the issue is not even the warships getting hit cause they have a lot of protection, the problem is how are you going to escort thousands of tankers through, it will be so expensive it won’t be worth it
FingerCommon7093 on
Imagine just the cost alone. Every drone is a danger that MUST be intercepted. Each one with a thermite charge is a dead tanker if it gets through. Our missiles to stop drones are a million plus per. Drones are 50 bucks. Ships carry a finite supply of missiles. Drones can be launched in swarms of hundreds. So yeah $ 500,000,000 in munitions per tanker escorted safely past Iran seems possible. We need DOGE to audit the Pentagon
in_da_tr33z on
On the one hand, the IRGC are liars when it suits them and I wouldn’t doubt that they would bluff about their abilities to defend the strait.
On the other hand, you have to assume that they know that the entire conflict hinges on the strait and would have dedicated a lot of resources specifically to turning it into a death trap.
Big question is how much of their strait defense asset pool remains.
Born-Media6436 on
OMG this is terrifying! Hopefully they feed their citizens some time this month.
rtrawitzki on
Their only real chance is to keep the strait blocked until oil prices rise so high it makes it politically impossible for Trump to keep the war going.
But by the same logic , it gives the US every incentive in the world to open it up as soon as possible.
It all depends whether they actually have the resources to defy the US navy/ Airforce for an extended period.
linx28 on
wonder if the guards will fuck with the US’s boats again after what happened last time
UristCastlerelic on
It didn’t take a nuclear state to take out the USS Cole. Asymmetry is to their advantage.
Yuukiko_ on
Who wants to bet Trump will take the bait?
backpackerTW on
I believe a grownup Peace prize winner won’t take this bait, right?
jrblockquote on
This is Iran’s play; sit back and watch the US public go apeshit when gas hits $5 a gallon. Even the cultists will renounce their allegiance.
Madismas on
Cut a canal right between Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Sohar, problem solved?
manniesalado on
How the heck did Trump get the world into this jam? And his only solution is to just carpet bomb Iran into submission? How primitive!
Daveallen10 on
Truthfully I think their ability to contest the straight is limited. Most of the drone attacks on ships so far have been ineffective. They probably no longer have the small boats needed to mine the straight.
Once the first convoy goes through I’ll bet everyone will just follow
Candid_Cat_5921 on
I’m pretty sure the US military is preparing to do mass carpet bombing. It wouldn’t surprise me if a sinking US warship would be enough to flip that switch from military leadership.Â
TheDentateGyrus on
Maybe they know what everyone knows – we haven’t built enough destroyers and escort ships to do something like this. If you want to be sad but entertained, look up the history of the CG-X, LCS, and Zumwalt programs.
Also I feel obligated to say that building battleships won’t help this problem.
esorbn on
Not a good challenge if your chalanging the US Air Force to carpet bomb your coast line.
19 Comments
Wild
They know 1 or 2 tankers hit through the US protection it all collapses. Oil goes up to 100+$ a barrel minimum. Global economy implodes as the world bids to get what fuel it can.
US is then required to deploy troops to Iran. 10s of thousand US troops in Iran for years.
Or the sane play is US tucks its tail between its legs and leaves to save the world economy. It trump so we know the answer.
That chokepoint would be a complete deathtrap. Every Iran’s rocket and their mother is aiming there in hope the US navy shows up.
It’s crazy that a solution has not been found since the 80s in regards to Iran blockading the strait of Hormuz, the issue is not even the warships getting hit cause they have a lot of protection, the problem is how are you going to escort thousands of tankers through, it will be so expensive it won’t be worth it
Imagine just the cost alone. Every drone is a danger that MUST be intercepted. Each one with a thermite charge is a dead tanker if it gets through. Our missiles to stop drones are a million plus per. Drones are 50 bucks. Ships carry a finite supply of missiles. Drones can be launched in swarms of hundreds. So yeah $ 500,000,000 in munitions per tanker escorted safely past Iran seems possible. We need DOGE to audit the Pentagon
On the one hand, the IRGC are liars when it suits them and I wouldn’t doubt that they would bluff about their abilities to defend the strait.
On the other hand, you have to assume that they know that the entire conflict hinges on the strait and would have dedicated a lot of resources specifically to turning it into a death trap.
Big question is how much of their strait defense asset pool remains.
OMG this is terrifying! Hopefully they feed their citizens some time this month.
Their only real chance is to keep the strait blocked until oil prices rise so high it makes it politically impossible for Trump to keep the war going.
But by the same logic , it gives the US every incentive in the world to open it up as soon as possible.
It all depends whether they actually have the resources to defy the US navy/ Airforce for an extended period.
wonder if the guards will fuck with the US’s boats again after what happened last time
It didn’t take a nuclear state to take out the USS Cole. Asymmetry is to their advantage.
Who wants to bet Trump will take the bait?
I believe a grownup Peace prize winner won’t take this bait, right?
This is Iran’s play; sit back and watch the US public go apeshit when gas hits $5 a gallon. Even the cultists will renounce their allegiance.
Cut a canal right between Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Sohar, problem solved?
How the heck did Trump get the world into this jam? And his only solution is to just carpet bomb Iran into submission? How primitive!
Truthfully I think their ability to contest the straight is limited. Most of the drone attacks on ships so far have been ineffective. They probably no longer have the small boats needed to mine the straight.
Once the first convoy goes through I’ll bet everyone will just follow
I’m pretty sure the US military is preparing to do mass carpet bombing. It wouldn’t surprise me if a sinking US warship would be enough to flip that switch from military leadership.Â
Maybe they know what everyone knows – we haven’t built enough destroyers and escort ships to do something like this. If you want to be sad but entertained, look up the history of the CG-X, LCS, and Zumwalt programs.
Also I feel obligated to say that building battleships won’t help this problem.
Not a good challenge if your chalanging the US Air Force to carpet bomb your coast line.