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    Last month I asked if Orbán can actually lose. I ran 40,000 simulations again. Now it's not even close. [OC]
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    Last month I asked if Orbán can actually lose. I ran 40,000 simulations again. Now it’s not even close. [OC]

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    31 Comments

    1. Exciting-Lab1263 on

      A month ago I posted my election forecast here and it sparked a big debate. The model has been updated with new polling data, and the picture has changed dramatically.

      **Then vs. now:**

      ||Feb 9|Mar 8|Change|
      |:-|:-|:-|:-|
      |TISZA (opposition) majority|50.6%|71.7%|+21pp|
      |Fidesz (Orbán) majority|45.0%|16.9%|-28pp|
      |Deadlock|4.4%|11.4%|+7pp|

      TISZA now wins the most seats in **77% of simulations**. Orbán’s chance of holding an independent majority has collapsed from 45% to 17%.

      The twist: the far-right Mi Hazánk has surged back toward the 5% parliamentary threshold (entry probability: 73%, up from 26%). If they get in, they become a potential kingmaker and the chance that *nobody* can form a government nearly triples.

      Five weeks out, the question isn’t really “can Orbán lose?” anymore. It’s whether TISZA can win outright, or whether Mi Hazánk forces everyone into coalition talks.

      Full analysis: [https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-08/](https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-08/)

      Previous forecast: [https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1r4oku8/can_orb%C3%A1n_actually_lose_i_ran_40000_simulations/](https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1r4oku8/can_orb%C3%A1n_actually_lose_i_ran_40000_simulations/)

      Happy to answer questions about the model or Hungarian electoral politics.

    5. Accomplished-Moose50 on

      Don’t get me wrong, I don’t call into question your simulations, I don’t know if it maters. In Belarus the dictator also lost.

      Like other butcher said: It’s not the people who vote that count, it’s the people who count the votes.

      And that’s part of the ex-Soviet union culture now.

    6. VonBombadier on

      Hopefully that toad will spend an extremely long time in prison, along with every crony he made rich along the way.

    9. Atitkos on

      I’ll be honest, I hate these posts. Because this will make voters think it will be an easy Tisza win, and the same thing will happen as in the US when democrats tought they were gonna win no problem and did not go vote. This is not over till it’s over.

      And even then, Fidesz has so much power outside of the parliament that if Tisza doesn’t have supermajority it will be hell for them to do anything.

    10. creamyjoshy on

      It’s more than a month out from the vote and there is plenty of campaigning left. Any projection at this stage is not relevant

    11. Smartimess on

      You will be in for a huge surprise, because the Orbán crime syndicate will cheat their way into power again. He sucked Purins dick last week to ensure his win.

    13. HearingOk9977 on

      Why is Tisza even considered better than Fidesz? Tisza leader was part of Fidesz for 22 years and to my eye, of someone who knows little about Hungarian politics, Magyar does not seem any better. 

    14. JimTheSaint on

      Doesn’t even matter a little bit before people have actually placed their vote. So much can go wrong and its certain orban will use any trick in the book to win if there’s just a little doubt. So don’t worry about what the numbers say – and just go and vote 

    15. dobik on

      In almost all countries in EU the right/conservative always did better than in poles and predictions. Like we had in Polish presidental elections where all the polls showed that the center/left candidate would win and boom. We got more conservative president winning by 1pp.

      Tisha will win 100% but I would not be super optimistic that they will have the supermajority etc.

      Same story with trump.

    18. Botanical_Director on

      Thinking you already won is the best way to actually loose.

      People need to stay mobilized and show up on election day, not stay at home thinking it’s already in the bag so why bother.

      Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

    19. Raviolimannen on

      I shouldn’t have to scroll in the comments to figure out what party is orbáns and whos not… in r/europe not everyone is from hungary…

    20. win_some_lose_most1y on

      I said a month ago and I say again now, this is just as good as taking any single opinion poll, the adjusting for the vote system.

      And it cannot be % win chance, because it is not probability in a vaccum, it cannot be 12.4% TIZA supermajority, it either will be or wont be.

    21. chuunis on

      Many were absolutely certain that Hilary or Kamala will win.
      Seems that whatever the simulation is, still gives a good chance to Orban.
      You know how the joke goes: it’s 50:50 you win lottery – you either win or you don’t.

    27. KadmonX on

      I am sure that this simulation does not take into account the fact that the Russians are going to distribute more than $100 million in rural areas of Hungary in the form of voter bribery.

    28. Partiallyfermented on

      What will Hungary look like if TISZA wins the majority? I’m very ignorant when it comes ot Hungarian politics, I’ve no idea what Orbán’s competition is like.

    29. LeviJr00 on

      I’m gonna call it now, so I won’t get surprised later if it actually happens: he’s gonna postpone the election, because of a “national emergency”.

    30. wil3k on

      I guess, that’s based on the assumption that the election will be more or less fair?

      Nevertheless, I wish Hungary only the best and hope Orban will rot in prison after the rule-of-law is re-established.

    31. awmath on

      To every thinking person in hungary: this is not about probability! Look at what happened in the us. Look what happened in the UK with the brexit vote. This is very likely your last chance to not end up in a dictatorship.
      Get your a**** up to vote. Because Orbans bootlickers definitely will.