The power balance over the breakaway region of Transnistria is changing fast. Moldova’s pro-European government is getting stronger, while the separatist leadership in Tiraspol depends on a distracted Russia for support.
Another factor is gas supply problems. Transnistria’s economy is in serious trouble after more than 30 years of relying on free Russian gas, which has long propped it up.
Its economy contracted by 18 per cent in 2025, with a 30-per-cent collapse in industrial production and almost 15-per-cent inflation. Per capita GDP is a lowly 4,150 euros; in Moldova it is 7,250 euros.
When Ukraine blocked supplies from Russia passing through its territory, Transnistria was forced to turn the European Union and declare an economic state of emergency.
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