The Australia 200 trades 140 points (-1.63%) lower at 8498 as of 3.20pm AEDT.
Middle East tensions impact global markets
The eerie calm that had settled over the ASX 200 earlier this week was shattered today, with the index plunging 155 points or 1.79% to a 10-day low of 8485. No recovery is in sight.
The damaging sell-off was primarily driven by heavy falls on Wall Street, which followed significant escalations in the Middle East conflict. Tit-for-tat strikes targeted critical Gulf infrastructure, including an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s South Pars gas field and a retaliatory hit by Iran on Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant.
Initially, President Trump claimed no knowledge of the Israeli strike on South Pars and called for de-escalation in the targeting of energy infrastructure. However, he has since taken a tougher stance, warning that if Iran continues its strikes against Qatar and other Gulf energy sites, the United States (US) would ‘massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field’ with unprecedented force.
Continued targeting of energy infrastructure could push an already precarious global economic situation over the edge into a dire state.
Wall Street’s weakness was compounded by a hawkish hold from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While interest rates were held steady at 3.50% – 3.75%, as expected, the updated dot plot still projected one rate cut for 2026. However, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell emphasised that there would be no rate cuts until inflation showed clear progress, and he didn’t rule out hikes if necessary. This led to the odds of a 25 basis point (bp) Fed rate cut by year-end falling from near-certain to about 60%.
In today’s key economic news
The Australian jobs report for February proved a mixed bag. Employment rose by a stronger-than-expected 48,900, comfortably beating the 20,000 gain anticipated. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.1%, as the participation rate rose to 66.9% from 66.7%. While the jump in the unemployment rate is a concern against the backdrop of Middle East uncertainty, it’s worth noting the unemployment rate is only back at the top of the 4.1% – 4.3% range it has spent 11 of the past 12 months in.
The rates market finishes the day pricing in 15 bp of hikes for the RBA’s May Board meeting. Looking further out, the rates market is fully priced for two more 25 bp hikes by November, which would push the cash rate to 4.60% — its highest level since October 2011.