Slovenia is preparing for pivotal parliamentary elections on 22 March that will have a considerable impact on its economic future and democratic governance. Two primary blocs are engaged in a closely contested race for seats in Parliament, which will be instrumental in forming the next government.
The key contenders are the Freedom Movement (GS), led by Prime Minister Robert Golob, and the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), headed by former Prime Minister Janez Janša. The Freedom Movement is a social liberal party and a member of the Renew Group in the European Parliament. At the same time, the Slovenian Democratic Party is a right-wing populist party affiliated with the European People’s Party (EPP).
While opinion polls indicate varying levels of support, analysts anticipate a competitive struggle between the two parties, with neither likely to attain an outright majority in the 90-seat parliament. Smaller coalition partners may influence the outcome. It is important to note that the electoral process is currently overshadowed by significant events that have raised concerns about corruption and attempts at foreign interference.
Report indicates conservatives used public funds to influence media in 2020-22
The final report of a parliamentary inquiry presents serious allegations regarding the conservative parties SDS and New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi), led by Jernej Vrtovec. The inquiry suggests that these parties established a complex system to divert public and private funds into media and political structures affiliated with their interests during the governmental term of former Prime Minister Janez Janša from 2020 to 2022.
In Slovenia, party financing is subject to strict regulations that permit only individual donations. As a result, political parties receive substantial funding from the national budget if they secure a minimum number of votes in general and local elections. However, this 500-page report asserts that SDS and NSi employed a “sophisticated system of bypass financing.” This system purportedly involved state-owned enterprises, advertising contracts, private donations, and foreign investments.
Foreign interference attempts
A series of leaked recordings and covert videos has significantly shaken Slovenia’s political landscape ahead of the upcoming elections, prompting allegations of corruption and fears of foreign interference. These materials, shared on social media and a new website, reportedly feature conversations involving former government officials and a prominent lawyer. Those implicated deny the allegations, claiming the recordings were manipulated or taken out of context.
The controversy began when the Facebook profile “Maske padajo” (meaning “Masks are Falling”) started publishing audio clips, claiming they were intercepted discussions among political figures from the governing coalition. This has garnered significant attention, especially from right-wing media.
The high production quality of the recordings and their organised nature suggest a professional initiative. In light of the scandal, the government convened the National Security Council to consider potential national security implications. Authorities are investigating possible foreign interference in the electoral process and scrutinising the origins of the online platforms used to distribute content.
Former Prime Minister Miro Cerar has suggested that Slovenia’s Constitutional Court may need to determine if these revelations have compromised the fairness of the electoral campaign.
What is at stake?
The upcoming elections in Slovenia are pivotal for both the domestic and foreign policy agendas of this European Union and NATO member state. With a population of 2 million, Slovenia gained independence from Yugoslavia in 1991.
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Robert Golob, Slovenia has distinguished itself by being one of the few European nations to recognise an independent Palestinian state. Last year, the government implemented an arms embargo on Israel amid the Gaza bombing campaign and issued strong condemnations of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions, all while serving as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
In the context of the US-Israeli military actions against Iran, Slovenian President Nataša Pirc Musar said that the effectiveness of such interventions is limited without a well-defined vision for the affected country’s future development.
On 12 March, the Slovenian government deliberated on the possibility of joining South Africa’s genocide case against Israel before the International Court of Justice. Ultimately, however, the decision was made not to participate, as the deadline to join had passed that same day.
This stance may shift under the leadership of former Prime Minister Janez Janša, a pro-Israel, closely aligned with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Janša has indicated plans to revise Golob’s domestic agenda by proposing tax incentives for businesses while reducing funding for civil society, welfare, and media.
Concerns about potential foreign interference in the electoral process have surfaced following reports that Janša met with officials from the Israeli private intelligence firm Black Cube. While Janša confirmed that he consulted with a Black Cube advisor, he has denied any wrongdoing.
Recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron have highlighted documented instances of interference and disinformation by external forces ahead of Slovenia’s elections.
Consequently, these elections are crucial, as they could determine whether Slovenia continues as a democratic welfare state or transitions toward illiberal democratic governance.
“Foreign interference, particularly from Israel, Russia or others, in elections in Slovenia and Hungary is a direct threat to our democracies and to the stability of the European Union. Protecting citizens and safeguarding the integrity of our elections must be our priority. At a time of global instability and rising living costs, Europe cannot afford mini-Trumps who fuel chaos and division. In Slovenia, Vesna and Levica offer a different path, stability, credibility and real solutions for people’s daily lives,” said Vula Tsetsi, Co-Chair of the European Green Party.
Recent opinion polls reveal notable polarisation among voters, with major parties actively negotiating potential coalitions. There is uncertainty about whether the next parliament will consist of six or seven parties, a factor that will greatly influence the future composition of the governing coalition.
A poll conducted by Mediana between 16 and 18 March, commissioned by the public broadcaster RTV Slovenija, indicates that seven parties are projected to exceed the national 4% electoral threshold necessary for parliamentary representation. Currently, among the ruling coalition parties, the GS has 18.9% support, the Social Democrats 5.8%, and both Levica and Vesna 5.5%. On the conservative side, the SDS has 18.5% support, and the NSi stands at 6%. Additionally, two smaller parties—the centre-right Democrats, led by Anže Logar, and the anti-vaccination right-wing populist party Resni.ca, led by Zoran Stevanović—are expected to secure 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively, providing further options for potential SDS alliances.