64The European Union’s energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, has urged member states to begin refilling gas storage earlier than usual and to make fuller use of the flexibility built into EU rules, warning that a collective rush to buy fuel later in the year could push prices higher.

The intervention comes as Brussels tries to limit the impact of the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States on already strained global energy markets.

According to reports from Bloomberg, Jørgensen told governments that they should work on the basis of filling storage sites to 80 per cent, rather than treating the nominal 90 per cent level as a rigid political objective in all circumstances. He also called on capitals to start injections sooner, rather than waiting for the traditional summer buying season, when European demand tends to intensify and competition for available cargoes can become more acute.

The commissioner’s message reflects a broader concern in Brussels that the bloc could end up bidding against itself. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU has become far more reliant on liquefied natural gas, with storage policy playing a central role in winter security planning. If several governments and utilities enter the market at the same time in search of large volumes, the result could be another sharp move upward in prices, with the cost then passed through to industry and households.

Jørgensen nevertheless sought to reassure member states that Europe’s immediate security of supply remains, in his words, relatively protected. The EU does not depend heavily on direct gas imports from the Middle East compared with its dependence on Norwegian gas, US LNG and other suppliers. But indirect exposure is considerable. The conflict has hit major energy infrastructure in the Gulf and raised fears over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global LNG and oil flows. Even if Europe avoids a physical shortage, it still faces the consequences of a tighter and more expensive global market.

That pressure is already visible in market prices. Reuters reported this week that European natural gas prices had risen by as much as 35 per cent after attacks on key Middle Eastern energy facilities, including damage affecting Qatari LNG export capacity. Analysts have warned that repairs to some installations could take years. Europe’s vulnerability lies less in direct dependency than in the fact that it must compete with Asian and other buyers for seaborne LNG at a moment when spare supply is limited and geopolitical risk is high.

The timing is awkward for the EU because storage levels are lower than at the same point last year. Reuters reported in January that EU gas storage had already fallen to 44 per cent, the lowest level for that point in the season since 2022, and projections suggested that stocks could fall to around 30 per cent or below by the end of March. Other reporting drawing on AGSI data placed EU storage at just under 29 per cent in mid-March. That leaves less margin for error as the refill season begins.

Under the current framework, member states have room to manoeuvre. The Commission has already proposed extending the gas storage regulation through the end of 2027, arguing that the mechanism remains necessary in a volatile geopolitical environment. The European Parliament and member states have also backed greater refill flexibility, including a wider window for achieving the target and allowances for difficult market conditions. Jørgensen’s latest appeal appears intended to push capitals to use that room pragmatically rather than treating the headline target as an inflexible deadline that distorts market behaviour.

For Brussels, the problem is no longer only one of physical supply. It is increasingly one of timing, price and coordination. The EU entered the post-2022 period believing that storage obligations would provide insurance against another winter shock. They still may. But the latest Middle East crisis has shown that storage policy can itself become a source of market stress if governments pursue the same objective in the same way at the same time. Jørgensen’s message is therefore straightforward: fill earlier, use the flexibilities available, and avoid turning the refill race into a fresh price crisis.

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