The United States has begun a series of meetings in Geneva aimed at establishing a multilateral framework for nuclear arms control. Following discussions with Russian representatives on 23 February 2026, American officials were scheduled to meet with a Chinese delegation, according to a senior State Department official. These talks represent Washington’s effort to expand the arms control regime beyond the bilateral arrangement that expired on 5 February 2026.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New START, between the U.S. and Russia, limited each country to 1,550 deployed warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles and other strategic systems. The treaty focused exclusively on “deployed” warheads; those removed from delivery systems were no longer counted under its terms.
Here lies a significant limitation of New START and its failure to address tactical or theatre-ranged nuclear weapons. Following unilateral reductions announced by President George H.W. Bush in 1991 and reciprocal commitments from Soviet and Russian leaders, thousands of U.S. tactical nuclear warheads and missiles were removed from stockpiles and destroyed. Russia, however, maintained and modernized its theatre-range nuclear forces. This meant that only a fraction of Russia’s total nuclear stockpile remained subject to treaty constraints, while China’s arsenal operated entirely outside any arms control framework. The U.S. Senate recognized this disparity during the New START talks but failed to secure coverage of these systems, leading to the treaty’s conclusion in 2026, leaving the two countries without binding constraints on their strategic nuclear forces for the first time since 1972.
As a significant third player, China’s nuclear arsenal has expanded from an estimated 250 warheads in 2015 to approximately 600 operational warheads today. U.S. Defence Department projections indicate this number will reach 1,000 by 2030. In 2025, China publicly displayed its full nuclear triad for the first time during the 2025 Victory Day parade. This included the H-6N strategic bomber equipped with the JingLei-1 air-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile with a range exceeding 5,400 nautical miles capable of reaching the continental United States from Chinese littoral waters, and land-based intercontinental missiles.
Due to these rapid developments, the U.S. called for a replacement New START agreement that would include China, reflecting what American officials describe as a changed strategic landscape requiring broader participation. Russia has insisted that the nuclear forces of NATO members Britain and France should be included in any negotiations, a position those countries reject. At the Geneva forum, France emphasized that agreement between states with the largest arsenals was essential, given what it characterized as an unprecedented weakening of nuclear norms.
But the pursuit of a multilateral arms control arrangement faces substantial obstacles. A serious agreement involving multiple nuclear powers cannot be completed quickly. A fundamental question concerns the principle of equality. U.S.-Russian bilateral agreements have generally rested on parity between the two parties. A three-way arrangement would need to determine whether China would demand equality with the United States and Russia, each of which maintains significantly larger arsenals.
Even if China reaches 1,000 warheads by 2030, it would lag significantly behind the United States and Russia. Plus, both China and Russia have expressed concerns about U.S. missile defence developments under Trump’s “Golden Dome” intended to create an impenetrable defence against attacks from China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. This difference suggests the possibility of one bilateral agreement constraining U.S. and Russian forces, and the U.S. and Beijing have a similar arrangement. These could serve as the basis for a multilateral notification system covering all five permanent Security Council members, later incorporating Britain and France.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia would prefer dialogue with the United States following New START and indicated that talks in Abu Dhabi had produced an understanding that both sides would act responsibly. But neither the Chinese nor the Russian permanent missions in Geneva provided immediate comment on the planned meetings.
President Trump has stated his desire to see a world with fewer nuclear weapons while emphasizing that the United States will maintain a credible and modernized nuclear deterrent. Rubio wrote that Russia and China should not expect the United States to remain static while they expand their nuclear forces.
The Geneva meetings represent an initial step in a process whose outcome remains uncertain. Whether these talks lead to formal negotiations or remain preliminary discussions will depend on China’s willingness to engage despite its stated reluctance, Russia’s cooperation on terms acceptable to the West, and the ability of all parties to find common ground.