Griffin Wong previews Thursday’s UEFA World Cup Play-Off Path B semifinal between Poland and Albania.
When he eventually retires, Robert Lewandowski will go down as one of the greatest strikers of his generation, a goal-scoring machine that traumatized opposing fans in the Bundesliga for more than a decade as part of Bayern Münich’s dynastic rule. He arguably would’ve had a Ballon d’Or to his name had the award not been canceled amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
However, Lewandowski has never led his native Poland to a knockout victory in the World Cup, and if he wants to do so in 2026, he’ll have to lead Białoczerwoni there first. They’ll begin their playoff campaign with a 3:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. local) clash against Albania in Warsaw in the first round of the EUFA World Cup Qualifying Play-off Path B.
Poland is a -150 favorite to win (-320 to advance to the path final) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Kuqezinjtë are +475 (+225 to advance). There are +265 odds that the tie will require penalties to decide.
Poland vs. Albania prediction, pick
With 54 teams vying for 16 slots, the European World Cup qualification process is unforgiving. Neither team did all that badly during qualification. Białoczerwoni managed to win five of their eight matches and even tied with the Netherlands twice, only being done in by a defeat against lowly Finland in Helsinki. Albania lost twice, but both were respectable 2-0 results against England, and Kuqezinjtë were held to only two draws otherwise. For Poland, it was an even better qualifying campaign than it had had in 2022, when it suffered two losses in the group stage and benefited from a walkover against Russia in the play-off semifinals. It was also Albania’s best; this will be the Balkan nation’s first appearance in the play-off.
Białoczerwoni’s roster has plenty of recognizable names. Lewandowski is the headliner, and he led the way for his nation in qualifying, scoring four goals and contributing three assists. He’s not alone, though; Köln attacking midfielder Jakub Kamiński, Aston Villa fullback Matty Cash, and Panathanaikos striker Karol Świderski smashed home two goals each for a team that finished 19th in goals and 15th in shots on target per 90 minutes during the group stage. Defensively, Poland was also solid, allowing just seven goals (no more than two in any given match), and giving up the 19th-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes. Białoczerwoni also ranked fifth in interceptions and ninth in tackles won, and while first-choice keeper Łukasz Skorupski will be out with a hamstring injury, Bartłomiej Dragowski saved five of his six opportunities in his lone start and has posted a 75.0% save percentage in the Polish Ekstraklasa. If Jan Urban doesn’t go for Dragowski, Kamil Grabara is a regular starter for Bundesliga outfit Wolfsburg.
Albania’s roster has a combined market value worth less than half of Poland’s, but Kuqezintjë had a respectable showing in Euro 2024 and shouldn’t be completely written off. Main striker Rey Manaj, who led the team with three goals in qualifying, won’t suit up after sustaining a tendon tear in his hamstring in a Süper Lig game last week, but between Beşiktaş’ Kristjan Asllani and Burnley’s Armando Broja, Albania still has some solid young attacking options with high-level experience. But where Kuqezintjë really thrive is the defense: during the group stage, they allowed just five goals — including four to England — allowing exactly as many shots on target as Białoczerwoni. While they recorded fewer tackles and interceptions, they played extremely clean football, committing the 13th-fewest fouls and drawing the sixth-most. They were also good at playing the offsides trap while rarely getting caught off themselves. In between the sticks, AEK Athens man Thomas Strakosha saved 80.0% of his opportunities, including five of seven against the Three Lions.
Given its strong defense, Albania could absolutely take it to penalties and win, especially since Strakosha has saved half of the penalties he’s faced this season with the Greek side. But any win for Kuqezintjë would need to be low-scoring, since I can’t see their attack getting past Dragowski or Grabara twice with Manaj absent, and Poland’s back line has been just as good in open play. The winner likely won’t need to score two goals, but if either team does, it’ll be Białoczerwoni.
Best Bet: Poland Win and U3.5 (-115)