![[OC] World population growth since 1700 and projections to 2100](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/lq6us3xuqlrg1-1229x1536.png "[OC] World population growth since 1700 and projections to 2100")
There’s a popular misconception that the global population is growing exponentially. But it’s not.
While the global population is still increasing in absolute numbers, population growth peaked decades ago.
In the chart, we see the global population growth rate per year. This is based on historical UN estimates and its medium projection to 2100.
Global population growth peaked in the 1960s at over 2% per year. Since then, rates have more than halved, falling to less than 1%.
The UN expects rates to continue to fall until the end of the century. In fact, towards the end of the century, it projects negative growth, meaning the global population will shrink instead of grow.
Learn more in our article "How has world population growth changed over time?
Posted by ourworldindata
21 Comments
**Data source:** HYDE (2023); Gapminder (2022); UN WPP (2024) (read [our detailed source methodology](https://ourworldindata.org/population-sources))
**Tools used:** the [OWID-Grapher](https://github.com/owid/owid-grapher) with finishing in Figma
Look at the trajectory 75 years ago, we have no idea what it will look like in 2100.
It would be beautiful if it had some kind of error bar on the estimates.
Now do the UN fertility projections over time compared to real growth. They’re consistently too high, we’ll never see a world with 10B humans.
Holy extrapolation batman.
Assuming current trends will continue for 75 years without any justification is ridiculous.
Gonna be interesting to see if we hit that 10 billion or not. Might just make it, might not. Then it goes back down for a while.
We didn’t quite hit 10B in 2010 but Bad Religion still had a good point [song](https://youtu.be/NY6YQJda8EM)
Does anybody really still believe in exponential population groth? It was all over the media during my childhood, but now most countries have fertility rates below replacement level. It is interesting to see how the fear of overpopulation vanished, being replaced by the fear of entire countries dying out in just a few decades, which also shows how quickly things can change.
OP posts a link to a detailed article with references. Redditor’s response: “Nuh-uh”. Never change reddit. Never change.
Well ya that’s because we’re on a logistical growth curve, not exponential.
73 million abortions a year will do that.
That’s why the world Ponzi scheme (economy) is panicking
This is the kind of news I support. Less people to deal with I. The future
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0.04% in prehistoric times.
God, bleeding edge of survival.
10B in 2060? In no way do we need another 2 billion disgusting humans on this planet
Many facets of the world have only gotten harder and worse. People should look to making the world better if we want more people in it.
population growth is logistic not exponential
Look at me, I’m going to project this hard to project thing EIGHTY YEARS into the future. How? With the power of bullshit.
“There’s a popular misconception that the global population is growing exponentially.”
There is?
Its exponential, but the coefficient may be larger or smaller or even negative. That’s why it is measured as a % y/y. But when the coefficient varies rapidly, it is fair to question how close to an exponential it actually is.