JP Morgan supply-chain advisors created a map showing when the last shipments of Gulf oil will arrive at their destinations across global markets

Asia is particularly reliant on Persian Gulf crude and crude products, and it is already "feeling the squeeze" as cargoes before the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have largely dried up, the analysts said. Cargoes from the gulf reach Asia in roughly 10 to 20 days, arriving first in India and later in Northeast Asia, they said.

In April, Southeast Asia's oil demand is expected to fall by about 300,000 barrels per day, but oil losses could climb rapidly, surpassing 2 million barrels per day in May and approaching 3 million barrels per day by June if oil-reserve stock releases remained contained within their respective countries, J.P. Morgan analysts said.

The Philippine government this week declared a state of national energy emergency, saying the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is resulting in "imminent danger" to the country's energy supply.

Next up for the oil shock is likely to be Africa, with effects becoming more pronounced in early April, according to J.P. Morgan analysts. Up to 250,000 barrels per day of oil-demand losses are possible in April if inland stocks are low, they said.

By mid-April, Europe will feel the impact, but the "shock is shaped more by rising costs and competition with Asia than by outright shortages," they said.

The U.S. has longer voyage times, with most oil deliveries likely to stop around April 15, and America also has substantial domestic oil production. That makes the U.S. unlikely to experience direct physical shortages in the near term, they said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-map-shows-a-crude-ticking-time-bomb-that-hits-much-of-the-worlds-oil-supply-in-april-2c058db6