Tax revenues have stalled while payroll and security spending rose, forcing Belarus to rely on Russian transfers and central bank bond purchases.
In Belarus, pressure on the budget continues due to a decline in tax revenues, which is partly offset by non-tax income, notably transfers from Russia.
According to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service and the MacroBy analytical group, consolidated budget expenditures for the first time since 2010 exceeded 30% of GDP, and the economy grew only about 1.3%, which does not justify large fiscal injections.
Over 80% of budget revenues were formed by the tax base, i.e., tax receipts, which rose from around 25% of GDP in 2023–2024 to 24% in 2025, which is linked to a decrease in the volume of external economic activity.
According to intelligence, the shortfall was partially offset by non-tax revenues, primarily transfers from Russia, notably compensation under the reverse excise for Belarusian refineries. Their share reached about 1.8% of GDP – a level last recorded in 2018, when the scheme for moving Russian oil was in effect.
Budget dependence on Russian transfers and government apparatus spending
In 2025, the budget’s dependence on Russian transfers increased, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine noted.
The main driver of expenditures was the pay of budget-funded workers: it rose 18% in nominal terms and could reach 10% of GDP, i.e., about a third of all consolidated budget spending.
To cover the gap that taxes could not fill, the National Bank bought government bonds worth 2.3 billion rubles (about 0.8% of GDP), effectively financing the deficit through money creation.
“The situation will worsen. In 2026, analysts expect the deficit to rise to 1–1.5% of GDP: revenues will slow due to the cooling of the economy, while expenditures remain high. There is some buffer, but significantly increasing spending will no longer be possible”
– Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service
According to intelligence, the share of tax revenues is decreasing, while costs for security agencies and the courts are rising.
Overall, the Belarusian budget is increasingly dependent on transfers from Russia, while domestic financing of the need to pay public sector wages and cost containment remain key challenges of the country’s financial policy.