One could argue that this is the most wide-open Masters in recent memory.
The superstars have looked beatable, whether it’s because of play or injury. The guys on the cusp of stardom are trending. There are even a few first-timers who statistically should have a chance to contend, though if you take once glance at the record books, you’ll realize Masters rookies almost never win (Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 was the last to do so).
The Masters is usually the easiest major to predict, mainly because it returns to the same course each year. Experience at Augusta National should be considered heavily, as should your players showing good form coming in. Diving into the analytics, approach play is always talked about, but perhaps a better indicator is how skilled players are around the green.
Without wasting any more time, let’s get right into the rankings, from Nos. 1-91:
Nos. 1-10
1. Jon Rahm: Has lost to only seven players combined in his last five LIV starts and his Data Golf skill profile is bursting at the seams. With Scheffler looking more human, he’s poised to win another green jacket.
2. Ludvig Åberg: Checks all the boxes, ranking No. 1 in our model, trending with three straight top-5s, and he’s gone second, seventh in two previous Masters.
3. Scottie Scheffler: He’s now gone back-to-back starts without notching a top-20 finish, and he’ll be just two weeks into being a father of two, but make no mistake, Scheffler is still top 10 in strokes gained tee to green and around the green, so if the iron play picks back up, he wins.
4. Cameron Young: Missed the cut last year, snapping a run of two straight Masters top-10s, and he’s not known for his play around the greens. But he’s second in proximity and top 10 in strokes gained tee to green as he enters his first start since winning The Players.
5. Matt Fitzpatrick: Was on him before going second-win in his last two Tour starts. He’s top five in our model while ranking second on Tour in strokes gained tee to green. Riding a streak of 10 straight made Masters cuts.
6. Xander Schauffele: Has cracked the top 10 in four of his last five Masters starts, and he enters this year with top-7s in three of his last four starts.
7. Bryson DeChambeau: He’s figured out Augusta National with top-6 finishes in two straight editions. He’s also won two consecutive LIV titles.
8. Rory McIlroy: After the lengthy wait for his first green jacket, can he successfully defend? Just three players have ever done so – Tiger, Jack and Faldo. He’s had some time to rest the back, and if healthy, the Tour’s leader in strokes gained tee to green will factor.
9. Min Woo Lee: This is the first surprise, though Lee is the hottest player right now, per Data Golf’s trend table. He’s nearly top 10 in strokes gained tee to green, second in par-5 scoring, and even the approach play has been remarkably better this year.
10. Patrick Reed: Hasn’t kept winning at the clip he did earlier this year, but he is coming off a T-10 at the Joburg Open. Might be the best chipper in the world and loves Augusta National – the 2018 champion has been T-12 or better in four of his last five.
NEWBURGH, INDIANA – OCTOBER 07: Jacob Bridgeman of the United States looks over a putt on the second hole during the third round of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship presented by United Leasing & Finance at Victoria National Golf Club on October 07, 2023 in Newburgh, Indiana. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Nos. 11-20
11. Hideki Matsuyama: He’s third in the model, which is no surprise considering he’s an excellent ball-striker and chipper. Since winning the Masters, he’s posted top-25s in three of four trips.
12. Akshay Bhatia: Throw out the missed cut at DLF; had a win and four top-16s in a row before that. Top 10 in strokes gained approach, though wish Masters record was a tad better.
13. Collin Morikawa: Keep an eye on the back, as he hasn’t played since withdrawing at The Players. But he had gone win, T-7, T-5 before that. Leads the Tour in strokes gained approach and is also fourth in par-5 scoring. If he’s healthy, he’s a threat to win.
14. Brooks Koepka: The ball-striking hasn’t been the problem, as he’s second in strokes gained approach. He did miss the cut in Houston, but he’d gone T-18 or better in three starts before that. Three MCs in his last five Masters, though was T-2 three years ago.
15. Jacob Bridgeman: Our first first-timer on the list, and for good reason. Won at Riviera and has not been worse than T-18 in eight starts this year. The only concern with his game is the chipping.
16. Tommy Fleetwood: Top 10 in par-5 scoring and strokes gained tee to green, and second in strokes gained around the green. Top-10s in four of last five, and at the Masters, he’s been T-21 or better with a T-3 in last four.
17. Chris Gotterup: Like Fleetwood, he’s top 10 in par-5 scoring and strokes gained tee to green, just with more power. He’s also top 25 in strokes gained around the green. He could be another first-timer who pops.
18. Jordan Spieth: Usually always finds it at Augusta National, evidenced by last year’s gritty T-14. Had three top-12s in four starts before struggling at Valero.
19. Nicolai Højgaard: Followed his T-16 in his Masters debut with a MC last year, but he’s trending, coming off a second in Houston.
20. Adam Scott: Hasn’t cracked the top 20 at a Masters since 2018, but he is third in strokes gained approach and proximity.
Nos. 21-30
21. Justin Rose: Since 2022, he’s alternated made and missed cuts, but, of course, he’s coming off a playoff loss to Rory McIlroy. He’s top 10 in strokes gained approach and got back on track with a T-13 at The Players.
22. Si Woo Kim: Has basically been a top-30 machine at Augusta National for the last eight years or so. Ranked fourth in strokes gained tee to green, third on approach and first in proximity.
23. Jake Knapp: Leads the Tour in par-5 scoring and putting outside of 10 feet.
24. Russell Henley: Another great putter who had three top-15s in four starts before going T-38, MC in last two Masters.
25. Viktor Hovland: Owns one top-10 in six Masters, though he’s always around the top 30. MC at Valspar sapped some momentum, and he’s outside the top 100 in par-5 scoring as the driver has been frustrating.
26. Maverick McNealy: Has shown some glimpses of late as he looks to build off T-32 in last year’s Masters debut. The putter has surprisingly frustrated him but the ball-striking is better (top 30 in strokes gained tee to green).
27. Robert MacIntyre: Fourth at The Players, T-2 at Valero and now headed to a place where he has a couple top-25s, though not in a few years. Needs to bounce back from his poor weekend finish in San Antonio.
28. Corey Conners: Owns four top-10s in his last six Masters starts, but outside the top 30 in strokes gained tee to green isn’t his usual ball-striking position.
29. J.J. Spaun: Fresh off another Valero win, he’s one of the best ball-strikers in the field, though is outside the top 160 in make percentage outside of 10 feet.
30. Justin Thomas: Continues to shake off rust post back surgery, but he’s gone cold in recent Masters – MC, MC, T-36.
Nos. 31-40
31. Shane Lowry
32. Sepp Straka
33. Ryan Gerard
34. Harry Hall
35. Rasmus Højgaard
36. Daniel Berger
37. Keegan Bradley
38. Patrick Cantlay
39. Gary Woodland
40. Cameron Smith
Nos. 41-50
41. Haotong Li
42. Sam Stevens
43. Nick Taylor
44. Ryan Fox
45. Ben Griffin
46. Tyrrell Hatton
47. Carlos Ortiz
48. Jason Day
49. Kurt Kitayama
50. Wyndham Clark
Nos. 51-60
51. Alex Noren
52. Casey Jarvis
53. Sam Burns
54. Harris English
55. Sungjae Im
56. Max Homa
57. Johnny Keefer
58. Brian Harman
59. Max Greyserman
60. Michael Brennan
Nos. 61-70
61. Marco Penge
62. Aaron Rai
63. a-Jackson Herrington
64. Andrew Novak
65. a-Mason Howell
66. Michael Kim
67. Matt McCarty
68. Nico Echavarria
69. Sami Valimaki
70. Dustin Johnson
Nos. 71-80
71. Kristoffer Reitan
72. Tom McKibbin
73. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
74. Sergio Garcia
75. Brian Campbell
76. Zach Johnson
77. Charl Schwartzel
78. Bubba Watson
79. Aldrich Potgieter
80. Davis Riley
Nos. 81-91
81. Danny Willett
82. Angel Cabrera
83. Fred Couples
84. Jose Maria Olazabal
85. a-Fifa Laopakdee
86. a-Ethan Fang
87. Naoyuki Kataoka
88. a-Brandon Holtz
89. Vijay Singh
90. a-Mateo Pulcini
91. Mike Weir