Europe’s airports are facing the prospect of running out of jet fuel within weeks, raising fears of widespread flight disruption during the upcoming half term and summer holiday periods.
Airport operators across the Continent have warned the European Union that kerosene supplies could be exhausted in as little as three weeks unless fuel deliveries from the Middle East increase significantly. The warning has intensified concerns about cancellations, delays and rising ticket prices at one of the busiest times of year for air travel.
Millions of British travellers fly to destinations such as Spain, France and Italy each year, making them particularly vulnerable to any disruption. Industry bodies say passengers should also be aware that travel insurance is unlikely to cover cancellations linked to fuel shortages, as most policies exclude events related to war or civil unrest.
The emerging crisis is tied to ongoing instability in the Gulf, where conflict involving Iran has disrupted oil and gas shipments. Around a fifth of the world’s supply typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that has seen severely reduced traffic since hostilities began.
In a letter to the EU’s transport commissioner, ACI Europe, which represents airports across the region, warned that shortages could “severely disrupt airport operations and air connectivity”. The group said that unless shipping through the Strait resumes in a stable and sustained way within weeks, a systemic shortage of jet fuel is likely.
Some early signs of strain are already visible. Refuelling restrictions have been introduced at several Italian airports, including Milan, Venice and Bologna, as operators attempt to conserve limited supplies.
Despite these developments, UK aviation sources have sought to reassure travellers. A source at a major airline operating from Heathrow said fuel supplies in Britain remain stable for now, although they cautioned that the situation could deteriorate within five to six weeks. Heathrow Airport also confirmed it is operating normally and that the government is closely monitoring developments.
Airline groups have echoed this message. Airlines UK, which represents major carriers, said recently that its members are not currently experiencing disruption to fuel supplies. Meanwhile, IAG, the parent company of British Airways, said it is not aware of any immediate issues.
However, industry insiders warn that conditions could change rapidly. Availability of fuel may vary widely between countries, airports and airlines, depending on supplier relationships and existing reserves. Larger carriers may be better placed to secure supplies, but at significantly higher cost, which is likely to be passed on to passengers.
Jet fuel prices have already surged, more than doubling since before the conflict. Benchmark prices recently stood at over $1,500 per tonne, compared with around $750 previously. Some airlines, including Scandinavian and Polish carriers, have already cut flights in response to rising costs.
Consumer experts say the impact could be long lasting. Even if tensions in the Middle East ease, supply chains may take time to recover, keeping prices elevated and forcing airlines to adopt fuel saving measures. These could include longer routes or reduced flight frequencies, both of which would increase fares.
The situation is even more severe in parts of Asia, where countries including Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan have declared official fuel shortages. Airlines flying to these destinations are being required to carry enough fuel for return journeys, a practice known as tankering, which increases aircraft weight and operating costs.
Passengers affected by cancellations may still have some protection under UK and European law. Airlines are required to offer either a refund or an alternative flight. However, compensation is unlikely if the disruption is deemed to be caused by extraordinary circumstances, such as geopolitical conflict.
With the peak travel season approaching, aviation authorities and governments are under increasing pressure to respond. Industry leaders are calling for urgent monitoring and coordinated action at EU level to prevent further disruption.
For now, travellers are being advised to stay informed, check flight updates regularly and prepare for possible changes to their plans.